Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Picks and Predictions December 27th 2025

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Betting Preview

Justin Herbert gets his long-awaited rematch with the league’s top defense after last season’s playoff meltdown against Houston. The Chargers enter Week 16 at 11-4, winners of four straight and seven of eight. Los Angeles has already secured a playoff berth but remains one game behind Denver in the AFC West with a head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. Saturday’s matchup shapes their path toward a potential division title.

Houston has won seven straight and sits at 10-5 with a win-and-in scenario. The Texans beat the Chargers 32-12 in last season’s AFC wild-card game, intercepting Herbert four times. Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter led a secondary that remains one of the league’s most productive, supported by edge threats Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Houston holds top rankings across scoring defense, total defense and takeaway margin.

Herbert admitted Tuesday that last year’s loss still lingers and emphasized ball security as the defining factor in Saturday’s matchup. C.J. Stroud expects a motivated opponent as Houston looks to secure a postseason berth for the first time since 2019.

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Line Movement and Odds

Projected Market Consensus

Chargers opened -2.5 and have held steady. Market sentiment supports Herbert’s efficiency and Los Angeles’ defensive surge. Houston sits +2.5 with sharp interest tied to its league-best defensive metrics.

The total opened 43 and has remained unchanged. Both defenses rank top-10 in scoring prevention, creating a tighter projected range.

Track all real-time shifts via the NFL odds board.

Matchup Breakdown

Houston’s identity centers on defensive pressure and well-timed coverage disguises. Their front produces consistent disruption, and their secondary ranks among the league’s best in turnovers. Offensively, Stroud continues to thrive through layered progressions and clean footwork. Houston will lean on quick-game efficiency to counter Los Angeles’ edge rush.

The Chargers rely on Herbert’s precision and structured red-zone sequencing. Los Angeles has tightened its turnover profile and improved third-down conversions over their recent stretch. Defensively, the Chargers’ front has generated consistent pressure, but run-stopping depth takes a hit with Denzel Perryman suspended. Los Angeles must protect Herbert from long-developing situations against Houston’s aggressive rush.

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Key Information

Sport: NFL
Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Broadcast: NFL Network

Betting Odds (Projected Consensus)

Chargers Moneyline: -145
Texans Moneyline: +125
Chargers Spread: -2.5 (-110)
Texans Spread: +2.5 (-110)
Total: 43.0 (O/U -110)

The Chargers Can Win If…

Los Angeles protects Herbert and removes turnover risk. Last season’s loss hinged on four interceptions, and Houston’s current defense continues to thrive on takeaway pressure. Herbert must control tempo through quick-game reads and limit contested windows. Defensively, the Chargers need to compress throwing lanes for Stroud and maintain leverage against edge runs. Efficiency in the red zone remains the key differentiator for Los Angeles.

Chargers Injury Report (Projected)

Derius Davis, ankle, questionable
RJ Mickens, shoulder, questionable
Benjamin St-Juste, shoulder, questionable
Jamaree Salyer, hamstring, questionable
Kimani Vidal, neck, questionable
Denzel Perryman, suspension, out

Full updates available on the Chargers team page.

The Texans Can Win If…

Houston replicates its defensive sequencing from last postseason and forces Herbert into long third downs. Their coverage disguises and pressure packages position Stingley, Lassiter, Pitre and Bullock to generate takeaways. Offensively, Stroud must prioritize clean possessions and sustain drives against a Chargers defense that prefers to dictate tempo through pressure. If Houston controls turnover margin, they control game flow.

Texans Injury Report (Projected)

Denico Autry, knee, questionable
Jake Hansen, chest, questionable
Trent Brown, ankle/knee, questionable
Aireontae Ersery, thumb surgery, out

Latest Betting Trends (Modeled)

Chargers SU last 8 games: 7-1
Chargers ATS last 5 home games: 4-1
Texans SU last 7 games: 7-0
Texans ATS last 5 games: 4-1
Chargers O/U last 6 games: 3-3
Texans O/U last 6 games: 2-4

Explore more trends inside the Expert Betting Guide.

Best Bets and Prediction

Houston’s defense carries the matchup advantage through pressure and turnover creation, but Herbert’s recent form and the Chargers’ balanced scoring profile give them narrow control at home. Both offenses project modest scoring efficiency against aggressive fronts.

Projected Score: Chargers 23, Texans 20
Best Bet: Chargers -2.5
Secondary Lean: Under 43

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