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Dolphins vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions — September 14, 2025
Dolphins desperate to erase Week 1 disaster, extend streak over Patriots
Miami Dolphins (0-1) look to rebound after a disastrous 33-8 loss to Indianapolis when they host the New England Patriots (0-1) Sunday in Miami. The Dolphins have beaten New England at home every season since 2019, but concerns are mounting over Miami’s offensive rhythm. The Patriots, meanwhile, come in with a young quarterback in Drake Maye and injury concerns across the roster, but see this as a chance to reset their season.
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Miami Dolphins Can Win If…
- Tua protects the ball. Two interceptions and a lost fumble in Week 1 killed Miami’s chances. If Tagovailoa stays composed beyond his first read, Miami’s offense can open up.
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle find space. With Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez questionable, Miami’s receivers could feast if matchups favor them.
- The defense sets the tone. Miami allowed only 133 yards in the opener last season vs New England; pressure on Maye could lead to more mistakes.
“I don’t want to make the same mistakes twice. He and everyone else has to get better,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said of Tua’s Week 1 struggles.
New England Patriots Can Win If…
- They protect Maye. The rookie was sacked four times in Week 1. If the line holds, he can exploit Miami’s secondary injuries.
- Red-zone execution improves. New England settled for field goals too often; touchdowns will be required to beat Miami.
- Defense generates turnovers. If the Patriots can replicate Indy’s blueprint — forcing Tua into panic mode — they can swing the game.
“You have to travel with the attitude that we need everybody,” Patriots coach Mike Vrabel said. “Playing great defense. Being able to control the game and create some turnovers.”
Key NFL Betting Trends
| Category | Dolphins | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 (lost 33-8 vs IND) | 0-1 (lost 27-16 vs LV) |
| QB Notes | Tagovailoa: 2 INT, 1 lost fumble | Maye: 287 yds, 1 INT, 4 sacks |
| Red Zone | 1 TD late, inefficient overall | 1 TD on 3 trips, 2 FGs |
| Injuries | Waddle (shoulder, limited), Waller (hip, questionable) | Gonzalez (hamstring, DNP), OL depth issues |
| Home/Away Form | 5 straight home wins vs NE | Lost last 5 trips to Miami |
The Leans
Main Pick: Dolphins -4.5 (Spread)
Projected Final Score: Dolphins 24, Patriots 17
- Moneyline Angle: Dolphins ML (safe anchor play)
- Total Points Angle: Under 43 → Both offenses struggling early; expect a defensive battle in humidity
Stay sharp with weekly coverage like this in our NFL Betting Predictions hub.
Best Bet Box
Best Bet: Dolphins ML + Under 43 (Parlay)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
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