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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Betting Preview
Tampa Bay returns home looking to solidify control of the NFC South despite injuries and uneven recent form. The Buccaneers opened the season 6-2, including a 23-3 win over the Saints in Week 8, but have won only once since. Baker Mayfield played through a sprained AC joint last week and guided Tampa Bay to a narrow 20-17 victory over Arizona, while Bucky Irving returned from injury and added needed stability to the run game. Chris Godwin Jr. provided his strongest outing of an injury-affected season, helping create balance after weeks of inconsistency.
New Orleans continues a developmental stretch with rookie Tyler Shough at quarterback. The Saints have lost four straight but showed late-game resolve in last week’s 21-17 loss at Miami. Shough rallied the offense with two touchdowns and a chance to tie the game in the final minutes before a conversion pass was intercepted. Head coach Kellen Moore praised his development, noting visible growth across his four starts.
Tampa Bay’s injury load remains significant. Mike Evans has missed five games but returned to limited walkthrough work. Todd Bowles emphasized that continuity and turnover margin will determine the matchup, as both teams historically trend toward defensive swings in this rivalry.
Review more divisional matchups inside the NFL previews section.
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Line Movement and Odds
Tampa Bay opened -8.5 and remains stable as the home favorite. Market support leans toward the Buccaneers’ defensive ceiling and divisional positioning. New Orleans sits +8.5 with interest tied to recent ATS performance and Shough’s improving efficiency.
The total opened 42.5 and has held steady. Expected light rain introduces potential footing issues, although both teams’ recent splits suggest scoring volatility.
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Matchup Breakdown
New Orleans can compete through short-area rhythm and turnover creation. The Saints rank well in sacks and interceptions and have shown sequencing improvement under Shough. Devaughn Vele continues to emerge as a consistent target, while Chris Olave’s availability influences downfield spacing. Sustaining drives has been a challenge, but their defensive structure keeps games within reach.
The Buccaneers rely on situational strength. Mayfield’s shoulder recovery remains a factor, but his control in tight-window situations has kept Tampa Bay afloat. Irving’s return boosts their midfield identity, and Godwin’s improved health expands their route tree. Defensively, Tampa Bay has dictated matchup flow through pressure and turnovers, which defined their first meeting with New Orleans. Their red-zone stability and special-teams execution provide a clear home-field advantage.
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Injuries and Conditions
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara, knee/ankle, questionable
Justin Reid, knee, questionable
Will Clapp, foot, out
Erik McCoy, biceps, out
Julian Blackmon, labrum, out
Landon Young, ankle, out
Nick Saldiveri, knee, out
Trey Palmer, ankle, out
Kendre Miller, knee, out
Ja’Lynn Polk, shoulder, out
Bub Means, ankle, out
Mason Pline, undisclosed, out
Full updates available on the Saints team page.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans, collarbone/concussion, out
Ko Kieft, leg, out
Cody Mauch, knee, out
Calijah Kancey, pectoral, out
Jalen McMillan, neck, out
Josh Williams, suspended, out
Rashad Wisdom, quadriceps, questionable
Tyler McLellan, undisclosed, out
Jaden Smith, undisclosed, out
Benjamin Morrison, hamstring, questionable
David Walker, knee, out
JJ Roberts, knee, out
Outdoor venue, light rain forecast.
Latest Betting Trends
Saints ATS with totals ≤ 42: 3-1
Saints ATS as underdog: 2-1
Buccaneers SU as favorite: 7-1
Buccaneers O/U at home: 6-1
Saints ATS away: 2-1
Buccaneers O/U after win: 4-1
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Best Bets and Prediction
New Orleans continues to cover in low-total environments and has played competitively with Shough under center. Tampa Bay’s injuries introduce volatility, and their offensive ceiling remains limited without Evans. The matchup projects closer than the spread suggests.
Projected Score: Buccaneers 28, Saints 21
Best Bet: Saints +8.5
Secondary Lean: Over 42.5
Evaluate expert performance on the SAS Leaderboard and access premium releases inside Buy Picks.specially at home, with a 6-1 record in their last seven home games. The projected score of 28-21 suggests a total of 49 points, which is above the current line. Thus, the recommendation is to bet the over 42.5.
