Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets Picks and Predictions May 13th 2025

The Jets and Stars are set to face off at 8:00 ET on ESPN. The Stars will host the game at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. This Central division matchup has an over/under of 5.5 goals, and the Stars are favored by -1.5 at home vs. the Jets.

Winnipeg vs. Dallas Key Information

• Teams: Jets at Stars
• Where: American Airlines Center Dallas
• Date: Tuesday, May 13th
• Betting Odds DAL -148 | WPG +125 O/U 5.5

The Jets Can Win If…

With a 7-4 win over the Lightning, the Jets moved to 56-22-4. Winnipeg covered the puck line as -1.5 goal favorites, and the total of 11 goals easily surpassed the pre-game line of 6.5 goals.

Trailing 2-0 in the first period, the Jets rallied with goals from seven different players. They took the lead for good with a goal from Alex Iafallo in the third period, eventually adding two empty-netters to seal the victory.

Winnipeg’s offense came alive in their game against Tampa Bay, with each of their 7 goals coming from different players. Vladislav Namestnikov opened the scoring for the Jets in the first period, netting his third goal of the season. Logan Stanley followed with his first goal of the year, while Mark Scheifele added his eighth. Alex Iafallo scored his first of the season on a power play in the third period, and Dylan Samberg notched his third goal. Nikolaj Ehlers, with his ninth goal, and Cole Perfetti, who scored his fourth, both found the net on empty net opportunities.

The Jets took 34 shots on goal and recorded 10 assists. Josh Morrissey now has 13 assists after picking up two more in this game. Vladislav Namestnikov and Nikolaj Ehlers each added an assist, bringing their totals to 7 and 9, respectively. Mark Scheifele also contributed with his 10th assist of the season.

Defensively, the Jets had a rough start, conceding the first two goals of the game. They also allowed the Lightning to tie the game at 3-3 and 4-4. Connor Hellebuyck made 26 saves with an 86.7% save percentage, while the Jets’ defense added 5 takeaways and 31 hits.

• The Jets have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
• The Jets have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 3-7 against the spread, while going 7-3 on the over-under.

The Stars Can Win If…

Dallas fell to 50-26-6 with a 4-2 road loss to the Panthers. The Stars were underdogs on the puck line and the total of 6.5 goals, with the combined 6 falling short of that mark.

After trailing 2-0, the Stars tied it up in the second period, but the Panthers pulled ahead with two more goals. Evgenii Dadonov and Matt Duchene each scored for Dallas.

Dallas managed just two goals in their 4-2 loss to the Panthers. Evgenii Dadonov netted his second goal of the season on a power play, while Matt Duchene added his seventh goal. Duchene also picked up his eighth assist on Dadonov’s goal.

The Stars fired 25 shots on goal but were held scoreless in the first and third periods. After 32 giveaways, Dallas finally got on the board at 8:38 in the second period.

Defensively, the Stars gave up the first two goals of the game and allowed two more in the third period, including one at the 2:32 mark and another with just a minute left. Casey DeSmith made 21 saves with a save percentage of 87.5%. The Stars’ defense also recorded 5 takeaways and 26 hits.

• Through their last three games, the Stars have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Dallas has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). The team’s record vs the puck line was just 6-4, in addition to an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

When it comes to a moneyline wager, I’m going with the Stars to defeat the Jets while playing at home. Given the current moneyline odds at -148, I’m placing a wager on the Stars to win outright.

When it comes to a puck line pick, our choice is the Stars to secure the win and cover. Expect the Stars to dominate this one with a multi-goal win over the Jets.

For those looking at the over/under line set at 5.5 goals, our expectation is that this game will surpass that mark, and we suggest making a bet on the over.

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Jets Must Break Road Curse to Stay Alive Against Stars

The Winnipeg Jets have hit a frustrating wall in their playoff journey. A team that dominated stretches of the 2024 NHL regular season now finds itself trailing 2–1 in the Western Conference Semifinals, facing a troubling pattern that threatens to derail their Stanley Cup dreams:

They can’t win on the road.

Game 4 against the Dallas Stars on Tuesday presents a crucial moment. A loss puts the Jets on the brink. A win resets the series and puts Winnipeg back in control with home-ice advantage in a best-of-three finish.

Follow updated NHL betting lines and injury news on our NHL Odds Page.

Road Woes Define Jets’ Postseason Narrative

Winnipeg has lost all four road playoff games this season, extending a dismal run of eight straight playoff road losses going back to April 2023.

And while their home performances have been elite, the contrast on the road is glaring. Missed opportunities, untimely penalties, and defensive lapses have cost them dearly.

They had Game 3 within reach—tied 2–2 in the second period—before giving up two goals in 54 seconds, including a controversial marker by Alexander Petrovic that became the eventual game-winner.

Coach Arniel on His Team’s Resolve:

Now they’ll need that bounce-back ability more than ever.

What’s at Stake in Game 4

The Jets are in must-win territory. Fall behind 3–1 in the series, and they’ll face the daunting task of winning three straight games, including another in Dallas—something they haven’t done in years.

But a victory Tuesday flips the series momentum instantly. With the series even at 2–2, and two of the final three games on home ice, Winnipeg would regain control.

The Jets remain one of the most complete teams in the NHL when clicking—solid goaltending, structured defense, and four effective lines. But they must prove they can replicate that formula on the road.

Stars Finding Form at the Right Time

The Dallas Stars bounced back convincingly after their Game 2 shutout loss. Game 3’s 5–2 victory was driven by energy, opportunism, and Mikko Rantanen—who continues to prove why the team made him a marquee trade-deadline acquisition.

Rantanen posted his fifth multi-point game in six outings, bringing his playoff totals to:

• 18 points
• 9 goals in 6 games
• 15 points on Dallas’ last 17 goals

His presence has changed the dynamic of the Stars’ attack, giving them a go-to finisher with elite instincts.

Jets vs Stars: Game 4 Statistical Snapshot

Dallas has been more efficient in the offensive zone, but the Jets have shown flashes of dominance when playing their style—especially at 5-on-5.

Game 4 Keys to Watch

Can Winnipeg Stay Disciplined?

Penalty kills have haunted the Jets all series long. Dallas’ power play is lethal, and untimely minors have flipped momentum in every loss.

Staying out of the box is essential—especially when playing on the road with the crowd behind the home team.

Hellebuyck’s Response Game

Connor Hellebuyck remains the X-factor. The Vezina finalist will need to steal a game, especially if the offense doesn’t light the lamp early.

He allowed 4+ goals in each of the Jets’ two losses this series. A lockdown performance could be just what Winnipeg needs to flip the series.

Rantanen’s Ice Time

The Jets must do a better job shadowing Rantanen. His zone entries and net presence are controlling shifts. Winnipeg may need to sacrifice offense from a defenseman to shut down his cycle game.

Betting Picks & Predictions

Prediction:

Jets 3, Stars 2 (OT)

Winnipeg breaks its road curse with a gritty performance. Hellebuyck shines, and a late goal from Nikolaj Ehlers forces overtime, where the Jets escape with their season back on track.

Best Bets:

• Jets ML (+125)
• Under 5.5 total goals
• Rantanen to record 1+ point
• Hellebuyck Over 28.5 saves

Get more postseason value picks via the NHL Expert Betting Guide.

FAQs

Why can’t the Jets win on the road?
Discipline issues and defensive lapses have plagued them. They’re also getting outshot and often start slow away from home.

Where is Game 4 being played?
In Dallas at American Airlines Center.

What time is puck drop?
Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET.

Where can I track series odds?
Visit our Stanley Cup Odds Blog for full projections.

Final Take: Desperation Breeds Opportunity

The Winnipeg Jets are backed into a corner—and in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, that can be a dangerous thing.

If they finally shake off their road curse, they’ll turn this into a war of attrition, where home ice tilts the balance back in their favor. If not, they’re staring down elimination against one of the hottest playoff offenses in the NHL.

For live odds, prop picks, and playoff coverage, check out the NHL Picks Page and NHL Team Page.