Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs April 26th 2025

Planning on watching today’s Maple Leafs and Senators game? Catch the action at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, as the Senators hosts this showdown at 7:00 ET on TBS. The over/under for this Atlantic division contest is set at 5.5 goals, with the Senators being favored by -1.5 at home against the Maple Leafs.

Toronto vs. Ottawa Key Information

• Teams: Maple Leafs at Senators
• Where: Canadian Tire Centre Ottawa
• Date: Saturday, April 26th
• Betting Odds OTT -112 | TOR -106 O/U 5.5

The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

Toronto fell 2-1 in overtime to the Wild, bringing their record to 52-26-4. The Maple Leafs were underdogs on the puck line, and the total was set at 6 goals, but the teams combined for just 3.

After trailing 1-0 in the first period, William Nylander tied it up with a goal at 19:08. The Wild’s Matt Boldy scored the game-winner at 2:14 in overtime.

Toronto’s offense managed just one goal in their 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild. William Nylander found the net for the ninth time this season, scoring on a power play at 19:08 in the first period. The Maple Leafs fired 28 shots on goal but were held scoreless after the first period.

Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner contributed with assists, bringing their season totals to 6 and 12, respectively. Toronto had 10 giveaways in the game.

The Maple Leafs’ defense gave up the first goal at 9:41 in the first period and the game-winner 2:14 into overtime. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage, while the defense added 2 takeaways and 30 hits.

• Spanning across their last three games, Toronto have gone 3-0. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Toronto has a record of 9-1. In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 3-7 on the over-under.

The Senators Can Win If…

With a 3-0 win over the Kraken, Ottawa improved to 45-30-7 this season. The Senators entered the game as -1.5 goal favorites and covered the puck line. The total was set at 6.5 goals, but the combined score of 3 fell well short.

Three different players found the net for Ottawa, with Adam Gaudette scoring first at 14:32 in the opening period. Brady Tkachuk added another goal in the second period, and Tim Stützle sealed the win with an empty-netter in the third.

Ottawa’s offense scored three times in their 3-0 win over the Kraken, with Tim Stützle netting his 6th goal of the season on an empty net. Brady Tkachuk added his 7th goal, while Adam Gaudette opened the scoring with his 7th goal of the year.

The Senators fired 23 shots on goal and recorded 11 giveaways. They scored once in each period, with Gaudette’s goal coming at 14:32 in the first period.

Anton Forsberg stopped all 22 shots he faced, posting a 100% save percentage in the Senators’ 3-0 win over the Kraken. Ottawa’s defense also contributed 2 takeaways and 25 hits.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Senators have gone 0-3 straight up. Across these games, their puck line record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• Across Ottawa’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. Across these games, their puck line record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Lean

When making a moneyline pick, my choice is the Senators to come out with a win against the Maple Leafs while playing at home. Considering the moneyline odds at -112, I’m placing my bet on the Senators to win outright.

If you’re looking for a puck line bet, I’d suggest going with the Maple Leafs to cover. Even in the event of a Senators victory, this game is expected to be closely fought, and the Maple Leafs should cover the puck line.

With an over/under line sitting at 5.5 goals, we like this game to surpass that mark and recommend getting a bet down on the over.

Top Hockey

Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

Toronto Maple Leafs on the Brink of a Sweep Against Senators

The Toronto Maple Leafs are just one win away from making history. On Saturday, they’ll take their shot at sweeping the Ottawa Senators in their first-round playoff series — something they haven’t achieved since 2001.

But recent history casts a long shadow: Toronto holds a disappointing 2-13 record in potential series-clinching games since 2004. Head coach Craig Berube knows the challenge isn’t just physical — it’s mental.

“All we can do is understand what you need to do every shift as a player, and know the battling and competitiveness you need, and the smart puck play,” Berube said. “The killer instinct will take care of itself.”

Close Battles Hide Leafs’ Dominance

Despite holding a commanding 3-0 series lead, the games have been anything but easy for Toronto. Ottawa has forced overtime in the past two contests, showing remarkable resilience.

In Game 2, the Senators clawed back from a 2-0 deficit. In Game 3, they responded quickly after Auston Matthews gave the Leafs a third-period lead, forcing overtime where Simon Benoit ultimately secured the win for Toronto.

Senators Staying Positive Despite Odds

Ottawa’s players aren’t ready to roll over. Veteran forward David Perron remains upbeat:

“The only thing we can do right now is look at the positive,” Perron said. “We feel like we’re right there. What’s history saying so far? Not great. But we’re going to try to turn this thing around one game at a time.”

Claude Giroux gave Ottawa its first lead of the series in Game 3, while Brady Tkachuk continues to lead the team in goals.

However, scoring has been a persistent challenge — Ottawa has managed just two goals in each of the three games.

Offensive Pressure Giving Leafs the Edge

Toronto’s relentless net-front presence has been a major factor in their success. Matthew Knies, in particular, has been a consistent menace for Ottawa goalie Linus Ullmark, battling for position and creating chaos in front of the crease.

“It’s gonna come down to us all as well, (not) allowing him or anyone else to get in front and utilize their skills,” Ullmark said.

Benoit’s overtime winner — a seeing-eye shot through heavy traffic — highlighted how critical this strategy has been.

Senators Need More Puck Luck — and Better Execution

Ottawa understands the formula for success: generate traffic, create rebound opportunities, and hope fortune favors them.

“Sometimes it comes down to Lady Luck,” Ullmark admitted. “And you know what, with Lady Luck, you gotta earn it.”

To extend the series, Ottawa must dig deeper, outwork Toronto in the high-danger areas, and capitalize on limited chances.

Rest, Recovery, and Momentum at Stake for Toronto

Finishing the series in four games offers Toronto more than just bragging rights. It provides precious rest ahead of what promises to be a grueling postseason journey.

Defenseman Brandon Carlo emphasized the advantage of wrapping things up early:

“There’s been times in my career that you finish off the series fast, and you have a long break between. That can become kind of awkward. But overall, I think rest is a weapon.”

Confidence, momentum, and recovery are all on the line as the Maple Leafs aim to finally develop the “killer instinct” that has eluded them for so long.

Key Takeaways:

Final Thoughts

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a golden opportunity to slay their playoff demons and complete a first-round sweep of the Ottawa Senators. With renewed focus, strong net-front play, and a disciplined mental approach, they’re poised to move forward with confidence. But they must respect Ottawa’s resilience — because in playoff hockey, no series is truly over until it’s won.