Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers Picks and Predictions November 20th 2025

Game Preview Edmonton Oilers @ Tampa Bay Lightning

The first team-page links belong in this opening paragraph: the Tampa Bay Lightning return home looking to build on a sharp special-teams rebound, while the Edmonton Oilers continue a challenging road stretch that has exposed both their offensive firepower and defensive inconsistency. Tampa Bay enters Thursday’s matchup seeking stability on the power play after a sluggish 1-for-11 stretch, while Edmonton tries to find emotional and tactical footing midway through a seven-game trip.

Tampa Bay corrected course Tuesday night with a 5-1 win over New Jersey—its best power-play showing in nearly two weeks. Jake Guentzel produced two goals with the man advantage, part of a hat trick performance, and the Lightning executed clean entries, won faceoffs and regained structure without head coach Jon Cooper behind the bench. Assistant Jeff Halpern guided the team while Cooper handled a personal matter. Tampa Bay has now won nine of its past 12 outings, while maintaining its identity as a possession-driven offense supported by elite goaltending when Andrei Vasilevskiy is in form.

Edmonton, meanwhile, dropped a 7-4 decision to Washington on Wednesday. Despite the loss, the Oilers generated significant pressure, showcased by two goals from Darnell Nurse and multipoint nights from Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. But the issue remains the same: defensive breakdowns, soft-zone coverage and struggles with goal prevention on the road (4-8-2). As Zach Hyman works back toward form after missing the season’s first 19 games, Edmonton’s depth still feels unsettled.

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Odds and Key Information

• Venue: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa Bay)
• Date: Thursday, November 20
• Oilers: +128
• Lightning: -154
• Puck Line: TB -1.5 (+158) | EDM +1.5 (-192)
• Total: 6.0 (O -111 / U -112)

Edmonton Outlook

Edmonton remains one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, ranking top-five in both goals and assists. The Oilers are generating shot volume at elite rates (4th in the NHL), and the top unit remains lethal: McDavid (9G, 23A) and Draisaitl (14G, 12A) continue to produce at MVP levels.

But the team’s inability to defend leads and protect the slot has become a signature weakness this season. They’ve allowed four or more goals in six of their past seven games, and their struggles on this road trip (2-3-0) include extended defensive lapses.

Zach Hyman’s return adds vital stability. His forechecking, physicality and net-front presence have shown quickly—11 hits in his season debut and an assist Wednesday—but defensive structure remains the concern.

Edmonton’s injury list continues to limit lineup flexibility, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kasperi Kapanen among the unavailable forwards. That weakens the team’s transitional play and secondary scoring support behind McDavid and Draisaitl.

Tampa Bay Outlook

Tampa Bay has returned to form after a choppy early stretch, winning seven of its past ten and rediscovering rhythm on special teams. While their power-play percentage (17.7%) trails last year’s elite 25.9%, Tuesday’s performance suggested progress: cleaner entries, quicker puck movement and increased shooting volume.

Jake Guentzel has been outstanding, leading the team with 11 goals and functioning as both a triggerman and play connector. Nikita Kucherov remains the fulcrum of the offense (9G, 9A), and Tampa Bay’s depth scorers—Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul before his injury—have helped stabilize the attack.

Defensively, Tampa Bay has been improved, particularly on home ice. Their puck-management decisions and forechecking layers have generated pressure that prevents extended defensive-zone shifts. And with Vasilevskiy turning aside 31 of 32 shots Tuesday, the Lightning are regaining the steady net presence that has defined their identity for years.

Tampa Bay’s primary challenge for this matchup lies in injuries on the blue line: Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh all have uncertain statuses. Even with these injuries, Tampa Bay has maintained structure through aggressive rotational support.

Key Matchup Table

Category	Edge
Power Play	Edmonton
Penalty Kill	Tampa Bay
Goaltending	Lightning
Scoring Depth	Lightning
Top-End Talent	Oilers
Home/Road Split	Lightning

Betting Trends

• Oilers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
• Oilers are 2-8 on the puck line in their last 10
• Oilers have hit the over in 6 of their last 10
• Lightning are 7-3 SU in their last 10
• Lightning are 5-0 on the puck line as underdogs (not applicable here but indicates resiliency)
• Lightning are 8-7 O/U on the year
• Market-wide NHL trend tracking available at the NHL picks board

The Lean

This matchup pits Edmonton’s elite top-end scoring against Tampa Bay’s structured team game and improving power play. Edmonton can absolutely trade goals with anyone, but defensive lapses and road inconsistency make them a difficult side to trust.

Tampa Bay brings a steadier profile, improved special teams, and a goaltending edge.

Projected Score: Lightning 4, Oilers 3

Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay -154
Total Pick: Over 6.0 (-111)
Both offenses drive pace, and both defenses allow high-danger looks. The model projects 7 total goals.

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