Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Predictions October 20th 2025

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Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Game 7 Betting Preview

Everything comes down to Monday night at Rogers Centre as the Mariners and Blue Jays meet for a decisive Game 7 with a trip to the World Series on the line. Toronto forced this game with a 6-2 win in Game 6, capitalizing on three Seattle errors and key extra-base hits from Addison Barger and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays have not reached the World Series since back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993. Seattle is still looking for its first appearance in franchise history. Toronto turns to Shane Bieber, who held the Mariners to two runs in Game 3, while Seattle gives the ball to George Kirby with a quick hook expected and the bullpen ready behind him.

Both clubs have shown top-end ceiling in this series, but execution with runners on base and defensive mistakes have swung momentum multiple times. Game 7 leans toward whichever starter settles in first and avoids the big inning.

Line Movement and Odds

Toronto opened as a small home favorite around -122, with Seattle priced near +104 on the road. Early money has leaned toward the Blue Jays after the Game 6 response, though the gap has stayed tight, signaling respect for Seattle’s lineup and bullpen depth in a winner-take-all spot.

The total sits at 7.5 runs, leaning slightly toward the over based on recent scoring trends and how both offenses have handled mistakes. With both starters facing the same matchup for the second time in a week, sharp bettors are watching for any hint of early command issues before locking in a side or total.

Updated pricing can be tracked through the MLB odds page before first pitch.

Matchup Breakdown

Seattle Outlook

Seattle needs Kirby to reset the tone early. When he fell behind counts in Game 3, Toronto sat on his fastball and forced elevated contact. His success comes from first-pitch strikes and getting quick outs to protect bullpen length. The Mariners’ path is manufacturing traffic, forcing Bieber into deeper counts, and giving their lineup a chance to stack a crooked inning before Toronto settles in defensively. If they are playing uphill again by the third or fourth, the margin for error shrinks.

Toronto Outlook

Bieber does not need swing-and-miss dominance here, he needs rhythm. The Jays won the last matchup by taking Seattle out of their timing and controlling the tempo in the box. Toronto’s contact profile travels well, and in a Game 7 setting, the more disciplined team often controls scoreboard pressure. If Toronto keeps clean defensive innings and avoids the extended pitch counts that Seattle wants, they hold the leverage late.

The starter who stabilizes first will dictate tempo. Seattle relies more on momentum and sequence hitting, while Toronto is built to win tight innings without a big swing. That tends to matter more in elimination scenarios.

Injuries and Conditions

Seattle enters with most of its core available, but bullpen depth is thinner than it was earlier in the series. That matters if Kirby struggles with efficiency and forces them into matchup relievers earlier than planned. Their latest injury report still lists Trent Thornton, Gregory Santos, and Ryan Bliss out, keeping their middle relief somewhat limited for a long-cover spot.

Toronto remains without several arms as well, but none of the current injuries impact their top leverage roles. They have been able to shorten games effectively when Bieber hands off clean innings. No travel concerns and the closed roof at Rogers Centre eliminate any weather factor, so tempo and command become the deciding conditions.

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Best Bets and Prediction

Game 7 comes down to which starter settles in faster. Seattle has the power to flip innings if Kirby keeps traffic off the bases, but Toronto has the more reliable path to run prevention with Bieber’s command profile and a fuller late-inning bullpen. The matchup is tighter than the number suggests, but the Blue Jays have the cleaner formula: early contact suppression, shorter innings, and high-leverage bats that do damage when mistakes leak middle.

Projected score: Blue Jays 5, Mariners 3
Best bet: Toronto moneyline
Secondary lean: Over 7.5

ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks

You can track verified MLB win streaks and postseason ROI on the Handicapper Leaderboard, and for daily cards across multiple sports, use the Free Picks hub. If you want to sharpen your playoff betting process, the Bettors Handbook breaks down matchup evaluation and bankroll strategy in plain language.

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