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St. Louis Blues vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Both teams need a reset. The Toronto Maple Leafs have dropped five straight and keep blowing third-period leads. The St. Louis Blues have gone 3-7-4 over the last month and start a tough five-game trip in Toronto.
You see the confidence issue on the Leafs’ side. Craig Berube called out a lack of belief and a failure to close. Toronto led 2-1 in Chicago, then allowed two in the third and wasted a power play.
St. Louis is not in a better place. Jim Montgomery questioned his group for watching instead of killing plays. The Blues spend too much time pinned in their own end, which kills their forecheck. Both teams are searching for answers, and you can expect urgency from both benches.
If you want more matchups like this, you can always scan the latest NHL previews before you bet.
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Line Movement and Odds
Books project Toronto as a moderate home favorite despite the skid. Market opinion still respects their offensive ceiling even with key injuries.
Projected consensus range:
- Toronto moneyline around −145
- St. Louis moneyline around +125
- Puck line St. Louis +1.5 likely in the −200 range
- Total set at 6.5 with early lean to the Over
Sharper money leans slightly toward the Blues on plus prices and toward the Over due to both teams’ defensive lapses late in games. Public bettors still back the Leafs at home, but confidence is shaky after five straight losses.
For live moves and closing numbers, track the board on the NHL odds page before you lock anything in.
Matchup Breakdown
St. Louis Blues Outlook
The Blues admit they are not hard enough on either end. Justin Faulk called out soft defending in their zone and a lack of sustained forecheck. When St. Louis spends long shifts hemmed in, the offense dries up.
The coaching staff is hinting at system tweaks. Montgomery talked about changing how they play in certain areas because the current formula is not working. For you as a bettor, that introduces volatility. The Blues could come out sharper and more aggressive, or they could look even more disjointed as they adjust.
If St. Louis has success, it will be through a heavy forecheck on a banged-up Toronto blue line and by taking away time and space from the Leafs’ skill forwards.
Toronto Maple Leafs Outlook
Toronto’s issue is not effort for 40 minutes. It is closing. They led the Kings and Blackhawks in the third period and came away with one point. Small coverage mistakes and failed clears keep ending up in their net.
Joseph Woll returned and played well in Chicago, which matters for your handicap. If the goaltending stabilizes and the skaters clean up late-game details, Toronto has the talent edge at home. But you are laying a price on a team that has not finished games.
With so many injuries, the Leafs need more from their middle six. If secondary scoring shows up, Toronto can overwhelm a struggling Blues defense. If not, this stays a coin flip.
Injuries and Conditions
St. Louis Blues
No specific new names were listed in the draft, but form and fatigue are concerns after a 1-1-2 homestand and a long travel spot. Check the St. Louis Blues injury report to see if any late scratches or lineup changes appear before puck drop.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto is dealing with a heavy injury load:
- Auston Matthews (C) out, lower body, on IR
- Anthony Stolarz (G) out, upper body, on IR
- Chris Tanev (D) out, upper body, on IR
- Brandon Carlo (D) out, lower body, added to IR
- Nicolas Roy (F) out, upper body
- Scott Laughton (F) out, upper body
That is a lot of responsibility shifted to the remaining core and depth options. You can review updated status and lines on the Toronto Maple Leafs injury report before you bet.
Conditions
Indoor game in Toronto. No weather angle here.
Best Bets and Prediction
Both teams are in funks, but the profile is different. St. Louis has been weak at both ends for a month. Toronto controls long stretches, then unravels in the third.
From a betting angle, you have:
- Leafs with a higher ceiling, heavy injury issues, and late-game meltdowns
- Blues with poor overall form and a coach hinting at system changes
Projected Score: Maple Leafs 4, Blues 3
Best Bet: Over 6.5
Both defenses are leaky, both teams struggle to close, and Toronto still has enough firepower to turn this into a chance-heavy game. Late-game chaos helps your Over.
Secondary Lean: St. Louis +1.5 (puck line)
If you want a plus side, the Blues catching a goal and a half makes sense against a Leafs team that cannot put games away.
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