Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights Picks and Predictions January 23rd 2026

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions – January 23, 2026

The Vegas Golden Knights head to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Friday night, with puck drop scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET. Vegas enters the matchup as a slim -118 road favorite, while Toronto is priced as a narrow home underdog at +100. Both teams are firmly in the playoff hunt and come into this one riding up-and-down form, making this a high-stakes matchup between two offensively talented squads that have shown some recent cracks defensively.

The Leafs just wrapped a short road swing and return home with questions in net and a blue line that’s been allowing too many quality chances. Vegas, meanwhile, continues to battle injuries but finds ways to grind out results behind strong two-way play. With an Over/Under sitting at 6.0 and a tight moneyline split, this matchup offers real value for bettors willing to dig deeper into 5-on-5 play, goaltending, and game script potential.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Odds

These are the current betting lines for this matchup. As always, check the latest NHL odds before puck drop for updates based on injuries, goalies, and betting action.

Team	Moneyline	Puck Line	Total
Vegas Golden Knights	-118	-1.5 (+202)	O 6.0
Toronto Maple Leafs	+100	+1.5 (-252)	U 6.0

Golden Knights Betting Form

Vegas hasn’t been playing at their peak level but still finds ways to hang around. They’ve split their last six games, dropping a couple to elite teams while picking off weaker opponents. The story remains the same: they’re deep, structured, and physical — but offensively they’ve been a bit dry lately, averaging just 2.8 goals over their last five games. The absence of key playmakers has hurt their ability to pull away in games.

Their special teams remain serviceable. The power play hovers around league average and the penalty kill has been better than expected — a valuable tool against a team like Toronto that leans heavily on the man advantage to drive scoring. Whether it’s Adin Hill or Logan Thompson starting in net, the Golden Knights often get steady goaltending that gives them a chance to win, especially when they hold teams to the outside.

To get a more complete read on trends and metrics, check the Vegas Golden Knights stats and results. That will show how often Vegas wins low-scoring games or fails to cover puck lines when their scoring doesn’t show up.

Player availability could impact this game. Keep an eye on the Vegas Golden Knights injury report to track any updates before Friday night.

Maple Leafs Betting Form

The Maple Leafs are walking a fine line right now. They’ve been giving up goals in bunches — 18 in their last four games — and it’s made them a risky side to back despite their firepower. Auston Matthews is doing his part up front, but defensive lapses and inconsistent goaltending have cost them games they should’ve closed out. Their current home form isn’t terrible, but they haven’t been dominant at Scotiabank Arena either.

Toronto’s power play is still one of the league’s most dangerous, sitting top five in conversion rate. That alone makes them live in any game, especially when they draw early penalties. But their penalty kill has been shaky — something Vegas could exploit even if their power play isn’t elite. More concerning is their inability to protect leads and finish games, which has turned moneyline bets into toss-ups even when they score first.

View the Toronto Maple Leafs schedule and stats for a more granular breakdown of recent game results and home splits. Toronto often plays fast and loose — great for Over bettors, not ideal for tight spreads.

Depth injuries continue to nag this lineup. Watch the Toronto Maple Leafs injury report to see if their blue line gets any reinforcements ahead of puck drop.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Matchup Breakdown

This game sets up as a contrast in styles. Vegas plays slower, more structured hockey, relying on physicality and patience. Toronto pushes pace, leans into transition rushes, and lives off quick strikes. That style clash creates volatility in totals and opens the door for puck line swings — especially late when Toronto either presses for a tying goal or leaves the net open.

At 5-on-5, Vegas has the edge in defensive metrics. Their expected goals against is significantly lower than Toronto’s, and their ability to limit high-danger chances is among the best in the league. That matters when facing a team like the Leafs who thrive off creative entries and quick puck movement.

If you’re trying to handicap this, ask yourself which style dictates pace. If it’s Vegas, the game slows down, gets more physical, and stays tighter. If it’s Toronto, we’re looking at 3-3 heading into the third, and the Over becomes the stronger lean.

Other matchup notes:

• Vegas is 14-3 when scoring first this season.
• Toronto has failed to cover the puck line in six of their last eight losses.
• Both teams allow a high volume of shots — expect goalie impact.

For a deeper breakdown of how to evaluate pace and style in hockey betting, check our advanced NHL betting strategies page.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Predictions and Best Bets

From a pure value standpoint, I lean Golden Knights moneyline (-118). This number reflects how evenly matched these teams are, but Vegas has more reliability in goal, better defensive structure, and a proven ability to grind out wins on the road. Toronto’s volatility — especially late in games — makes them tough to trust as even a slight underdog.

Totals are trickier. With so much scoring talent on both sides, the Over 6.0 might look tempting. But Vegas tends to suppress high-event hockey, and if they get the game they want, 6 could be a push or even slide under. I’d stay off the total unless it moves to 5.5 or juice on the Over shifts dramatically.

There’s no puck line value on Toronto at -252, and Vegas +202 might only hit if they pull away late or catch Toronto in desperation mode. It’s not my preferred angle.

Best Bet: Vegas Golden Knights moneyline (-118)

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