New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions October 1st 2025

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox October 1st 2025

The Boston Red Sox will visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium for a night game on October 1, 2025. The Red Sox have started the season strong with a 1-0 record, putting them at the top of the AL East division. The Yankees, on the other hand, are looking to bounce back from an opening loss, currently holding a 0-1 record and sitting in second place in the division.

Brayan Bello will take the mound for the Red Sox, bringing an ERA of 3.35 from last season. The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodón, who posted a 3.09 ERA last year. Fans can catch the action on ESPN, with a clear sky and mild conditions expected at the stadium.

Red Sox vs Yankees Key Information

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a tight 4-3 win over the Detroit Tigers. José De León pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing three runs while striking out eight. David Hamilton and Masataka Yoshida each hit a home run, contributing to the victory.

The Red Sox have a strong batting average of .254, ranking third in the league. They lead the league in doubles with 324, showing their ability to hit for extra bases. Their pitching staff is also solid, with a team ERA of 3.72, placing them fifth in the league.

Trevor Story is a key player for the Red Sox, with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs this season. Brayan Bello will be on the mound, boasting an ERA of 3.35. With their balanced offense and pitching, the Red Sox have the tools to secure another win.

The Yankees Can Win If…

The New York Yankees are coming off a tight 3-2 win against the Baltimore Orioles. In that game, Ben Rice was key, hitting two home runs and driving in two runs. Luis Gil pitched five innings, giving up two runs and striking out two batters.

The Yankees have shown strong hitting stats this season. They rank first in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, with a league-leading 274 home runs. Their ability to get on base and hit for power makes them a threat in any game.

With Carlos Rodón starting, the Yankees have a solid chance. Rodón has a 3.09 ERA and 18 wins this season. His ability to keep runs low will be crucial against the Red Sox.

The Lean

The Yankees are favored on the moneyline at -173. My model projects the Yankees to win with a score of 5-3. The Yankees have a strong on-base percentage and slugging percentage, ranking first in both categories, which supports their ability to score runs effectively.

The total for the game is set at 7.5. My model projects a total score of 8 runs. Given the Yankees’ high slugging percentage and the Red Sox’s pitching rank, the over 7.5 (+101) is a reasonable pick. Both teams have shown the ability to score, making the over a viable option.

Game Context And Series Outlook

The New York Yankees face elimination as they host the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card series on Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. Boston leads 1-0 after a dominant performance from Garrett Crochet in the opener, putting New York’s season on the brink.

The Red Sox shut down the Yankees’ lineup behind Crochet’s electric 117-pitch outing, striking out 11 and retiring 17 straight after an early home run. Now, New York turns to All-Star left-hander Carlos Rodón to extend their season and set up a winner-take-all Game 3.

For historical postseason trends and team stats, check MLB Teams.

Yankees Lean On Rodón To Survive

Carlos Rodón will start for the Yankees, carrying the pressure of keeping New York’s playoff hopes alive. Rodón finished the regular season with an AL-best .188 opponents’ batting average and a career-high 18 wins. Over his final nine starts, he went 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA, including a 5 2/3-inning, one-hit gem against Boston on August 24 that helped spark the Yankees’ late-season surge.

His track record against Boston is mixed. In 2025, Rodón went 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA in three starts, and he’s 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 12 career starts versus the Red Sox. Last postseason, he struggled to a 5.60 ERA in four appearances but has emphasized staying composed and controlling the moment this time around.

Rodón’s ability to attack the strike zone early will be crucial. Boston’s patient lineup forced New York’s relievers into high-leverage spots in Game 1, and a deep outing from Rodón would relieve pressure on the bullpen. For game previews and pitching matchup analysis, see MLB Picks.

Red Sox Turn To Bello To Finish The Job

Brayan Bello gets the call for Boston, making his postseason debut. The young right-hander finished the regular season 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA, but he slumped down the stretch, posting an 0-3 record and a 5.79 ERA in his final three starts.

Despite that, Bello has historically dominated the Yankees. He’s 5-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 career starts against New York and 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in three outings this year. Yankee Stadium has been a favorable venue for him as well — he’s 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA in five career starts there.

Boston manager Alex Cora expects Bello to feed off the energy at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox will rely on his poise and sinker-heavy arsenal to keep New York’s left-handed bats — likely Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Ryan McMahon — off balance.

For updated odds and lines for this elimination matchup, check MLB Scores and Odds.

Key Matchups To Watch

The most important battle is Rodón against Boston’s top of the order. The Red Sox are adept at working counts, and if Rodón’s fastball command falters, they can build traffic and pressure New York’s bullpen again.

Bello’s success has often hinged on his ability to neutralize left-handed hitters. With Boone expected to stack the lineup with lefties, his control inside the zone will dictate how many scoring chances New York can create. Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch could be a factor if Bello leaves pitches elevated.

Betting Trends

New York has struggled recently in elimination spots, dropping four of its last five postseason elimination games at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are also just 3-7 in their last 10 games against Boston overall and have gone under the total in six of those matchups.

Boston has thrived as a road underdog, winning five of its last seven in that role. The Red Sox have also won seven of their last nine games at Yankee Stadium and have hit the under in four of their last six postseason meetings with the Yankees.

This rivalry has been tight in October, with the last five playoff matchups between these clubs decided by three runs or fewer.

For advanced wagering trends and series projections, refer to the MLB Expert Betting Guide.

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Final Prediction

The Yankees have the right pitcher on the mound to extend their season, but Bello’s history in the Bronx and Boston’s momentum from Game 1 make this matchup tighter than it looks. Expect a tense, low-scoring battle early with bullpen usage determining the late outcome.

Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Red Sox 3

New York forces a Game 3 behind Rodón’s strong outing and timely hitting from the left-handed bats. The lean is Yankees on the moneyline and under on the total due to the quality of both starters and postseason pressure.

For more postseason breakdowns and game previews, visit MLB Picks.