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Inter Miami vs Nashville SC – MLS Cup Playoffs Preview
The 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs kick off in South Florida on Friday, October 24, 2025, as Inter Miami CF hosts Nashville SC in the opening game of their best-of-three first-round series at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM ET, with the match airing on Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass.
It’s a matchup loaded with storylines — from Lionel Messi’s contract extension through 2028 to Nashville’s bid for redemption after repeated struggles against Miami.
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Line Movement and Odds
Inter Miami opens as a firm favorite at home, buoyed by their attacking form and perfect record against Nashville since Messi’s arrival. Bettors have leaned heavily toward the Herons in early action.
Current Odds:
- Inter Miami Moneyline: -165
- Draw: +295
- Nashville SC Moneyline: +380
- Total: Over/Under 3.0
For up-to-the-minute odds and line movement, track updates on the MLS scores and odds page.
Match Context: Messi Extends, Miami Ascends
Inter Miami enters the playoffs on the heels of a major announcement — Lionel Messi has signed a three-year extension that keeps him with the club through 2028, ensuring he remains the face of the franchise as they move into the new Miami Freedom Park next season.
Messi called the extension “a beautiful reality,” highlighting how the club has evolved from a dream into a competitive powerhouse. The timing couldn’t be better: Miami finished third in the Eastern Conference and is riding a five-match win streak against Nashville, unbeaten in eight straight meetings since 2023.
Messi ended the regular season with 29 goals and the Golden Boot, adding 14 assists — and he did it in style, dropping a hat trick plus an assist in Miami’s 5-2 win over Nashville on Decision Day.
But despite the lopsided final score, that match showed Miami’s vulnerability early. Nashville led 2-1 at halftime and controlled possession for long stretches before being torn apart by Messi’s second-half brilliance.
Inter Miami Can Win If…
The Herons continue to thrive when Messi and Luis Suárez link up in transition, forcing defenses to collapse. Miami ranks among the league’s elite in goals per game (2.1) and expected goals (xG), while their ball progression through midfield remains a key weapon.
Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba — both healthy entering the postseason — provide crucial control and veteran calm. When Busquets dictates the tempo, Miami’s attack becomes nearly uncontainable.
The only real concern? Defensive lapses. Miami conceded 49 goals in the regular season (8th most among playoff teams). If Drake Callender doesn’t stay sharp and the backline drifts too high, Nashville’s counterattack can punish them quickly.
For breakdowns of possession trends, xG data, and shot maps, visit the MLS teams page.
Nashville SC Can Win If…
Nashville SC has been building toward this moment. Their attack, led by Sam Surridge (24 goals) and Hany Mukhtar (16 goals), is the most balanced and dangerous in club history. Head coach B.J. Callaghan has implemented a more fluid pressing style that’s created scoring opportunities without sacrificing defensive identity.
In their last meeting with Miami, Nashville controlled the first half with intelligent buildup and compact midfield play. If they can reproduce that discipline for 90 minutes, they can frustrate Messi and force Miami into turnovers.
The key will be composure. Nashville has lost five straight to Miami, often collapsing in the final third of matches. Mukhtar and Surridge must make early chances count — and force Miami to chase the game, not control it.
For pre-match analytics, trends, and lineup data, check the MLS expert betting guide.
Betting Trends
- Inter Miami are 5-0 straight up in their last five matches vs Nashville.
- Miami have won 8 straight home games across all competitions.
- Lionel Messi has 10 goals in 7 matches vs Nashville — his most against any MLS opponent.
- Nashville SC are 1-5-1 in their last seven away matches.
- The Over 3.0 goals has hit in 6 of the last 8 Miami matches.
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Prediction and Analysis
Miami’s cohesion and star power make them overwhelming favorites, especially with Messi in peak form and the home crowd behind them. Nashville will compete physically, but they’ve yet to show they can handle sustained attacking pressure from Miami’s front three.
Expect another night where Messi dictates tempo and space — and likely finds the net again.
Projected Score: Inter Miami 3, Nashville SC 1
Best Bet: Inter Miami Moneyline (-165)
Total Lean: Over 3.0 (-110)
For verified betting records, ROI stats, and expert playoff picks across all sports, visit the Handicapper Leaderboard — your source for transparent, data-driven handicapping performance.
