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Texas vs. San Jose State Prediction: Longhorns Look to Rebound After Ohio State Loss
The Texas Longhorns return home Saturday to face the San Jose State Spartans at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET.
Texas (0-1) fell six spots to No. 7 in the AP poll after a 14-7 loss at then-No. 3 Ohio State. Despite outgaining the Buckeyes 336-203, the Longhorns came up empty on two red-zone trips and managed only a late touchdown pass from Arch Manning. San Jose State (0-1) also dropped its opener, 16-14 at home to Central Michigan, after rallying from a 13-0 deficit but failing to close.
Matchup Overview
- Venue: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025 – 3:30 PM ET
- Betting Odds: Texas ML -5000, San Jose State ML +1600, Spread TEX -34.5, O/U 55.5
The Longhorns Can Win If…
Arch Manning shakes off his first collegiate road start. Manning went 17-of-30 for 170 yards at Ohio State but admitted he pressed in key moments. With three straight home games ahead, he’ll have opportunities to build confidence before SEC play.
Texas’ defense looked dominant, holding the Buckeyes to just 203 total yards. If the offense finds balance with more explosive plays, the Longhorns have the firepower to cover big spreads against mid-major opponents.
Check expert breakdowns of Texas matchups on our College Football Picks page.
The Spartans Can Win If…
Quarterback Walter Eget plays clean and efficient. Eget threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns against Central Michigan, with wideout Danny Scudero hauling in 189 yards and a score. However, turnovers and late-game execution cost the Spartans a winnable opener.
For San Jose State to compete in Austin, the defense must limit big plays while Eget spreads the field. Against a deep Texas front seven, staying balanced will be critical.
Follow the latest lines and totals on the NCAAF Scores and Odds page.
Betting Outlook
Texas enters as a massive -34.5 favorite, with my model projecting a 45-10 Longhorns victory. The defense should dominate, and Manning should rebound against a secondary far less imposing than Ohio State’s.
At a total of 55.5, the lean is on the under, as Texas’ defense can suffocate San Jose State, and Sarkisian may keep the playbook conservative late with SEC play looming.
For strategies on handling big spreads in non-conference games, check the NCAAF Expert Betting Guide.
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Big spreads don’t scare the pros. Our college football handicappers are locked in on Week 2’s best value plays, including Texas vs. San Jose State. Check the leaderboard below to see who’s hot and which side they’re backing.
