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My number makes this a coin flip: Indiana by 0.15. Pass, until a price gives me something to bet against.
No book had a line on this game when I read the market at 14:21 UTC on 25 September. That is not why this is a pass; even against a price, 0.15 of a point is not an edge. This is Game 1 of a best-of-three first-round series, and every figure below comes from the completed 2026 regular season.
The number
Both teams finished with a winning record, so my figure takes each side’s games against winning opponents only: Las Vegas’s home games and Indiana’s road games. Las Vegas is 7-5 in those twelve home games and loses them by 1.4 points on average. Indiana is 4-7 in its eleven road games against winning teams and loses them by 1.1. Half the difference between the two is Indiana by 0.15.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. Indiana becomes a bet once Las Vegas is favoured by a point or more. Las Vegas becomes a bet once it is the underdog by a point and a half or more. Anywhere between, Aces -0.5 to Aces +1, stays a pass. ESPN’s matchup predictor carries no projection for this game yet, so there is nothing from it to check the number against.
The samples
Both splits sit close to zero for the same reason: they run through some heavy blowouts in both directions. Las Vegas’s twelve home games against winning teams include a 34-point loss and a 19-point win. Indiana’s eleven road games against winning teams include a 20-point loss and a 34-point win. Take away each side’s single biggest game and both averages barely move. These are two flat numbers, not two thin ones that happen to cancel out.
The season series
Indiana has already beaten Las Vegas twice this year, both in Las Vegas: 84-68 on 5 July and 109-75 on 12 July, the largest margin of any of Indiana’s eleven road games against winning teams this season. Las Vegas won the third meeting on the road in Indianapolis, 86-84 on 6 August.
Both of Indiana’s wins over Las Vegas this year came at the building hosting Sunday’s game. Three meetings is too small a sample to build a number on, and my model already has the season-long venue splits running close to even before this series is added, so it is stated as a fact about the season rather than folded into the pick.
Form
Las Vegas finishes the year on an 8-2 run over its last ten, winning by 12.6 a game, with a 37-point win at Seattle on 17 September inside that stretch. Indiana is 6-4 over the same span, winning by 4.1 a game, including a 20-point road loss at Minnesota on 24 September, its most recent result.
Both teams have two days of rest before Sunday, Las Vegas since a 100-82 win at Phoenix on 24 September and Indiana since that loss to Minnesota the same day.
The total
With no total posted there is nothing to bet. Las Vegas’s games have a median total of 179 this season; Indiana’s is 186. The three head-to-head meetings landed at 152, 184 and 170, a wide enough spread that the season medians are a better guide than the series itself.
Pick: Pass
Pick: Pass. My number is Indiana by 0.15, inside the threshold on both sides of a true pick’em. No line had been posted when this was written, 25 September 2026 at 14:21 UTC.
What would change it: a posted price of Aces -1 or shorter makes Indiana a bet; a price of Aces +1.5 or longer makes Las Vegas one. This piece carries no injury information and none is claimed; a reported change to either starting lineup would also change the call.
Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces, Sunday 27 September 2026, 4:00 PM ET, Michelob ULTRA Arena. Game 1 of a best-of-three first-round series. Results: ESPN, read 25 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game; Nucleus has not yet added Indiana’s or Las Vegas’s games against Portland Fire, so those two rest on ESPN alone. ESPN’s matchup predictor carried no projection for this game. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
