WNBA
WNBA · Thursday 24 September
Aces at Mercury Final Score: Aces Win 100-82
Final: Las Vegas Aces 100, Phoenix Mercury 82, Thursday 24 September at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Las Vegas is 11-1 on the road against losing teams. Take the Aces at -11 or shorter.” Las Vegas won by 18, so Aces -9.5 covered. The line that posted, Aces -9.5, was inside that threshold, so it was a bet at that number.
What decided it
Las Vegas won the second quarter by 15. Las Vegas turned the ball over 13 times to Phoenix’s 18, and shot 56% from the field to 44%.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | 32 | 33 | 12 | 23 | 100 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 18 | 18 | 24 | 22 | 82 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is LV -9.5, with a total of 174.5. Las Vegas covered as the favourite. The 182 points went over the total.
What comes next
ESPN lists no further game for the Las Vegas Aces yet. ESPN lists no further game for the Phoenix Mercury yet.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Pick the Aces – Aces at Mercury prediction, odds and best picks”.
Las Vegas is 11-1 on the road against losing teams. Take the Aces at -11 or shorter.
No book had a line on this game when I read the market at 16:15 UTC on 21 September, so this piece gives the price I would pay. My number is Las Vegas by 12.15. Every figure runs through Sunday 20 September; both teams play once more before Thursday.
The number
Las Vegas has a winning record, so my figure takes Phoenix’s home games against winning teams. Phoenix has a losing record, so it takes Las Vegas’s road games against losing teams. Half the difference between the two average margins is the number.
Phoenix is 1-8 in those nine home games and loses them by 8.7 points on average. Las Vegas is 11-1 in its twelve road games against losing teams and wins them by 15.6. Half the difference is Las Vegas by 12.15.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart, which makes Las Vegas a bet at -11 or shorter and a pass at -11.5 or longer. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Las Vegas 66.2%.
The samples
Las Vegas’s twelve road games against losing teams have a single loss, by one point, and five wins by 16 or more.
Phoenix’s nine home games against winning teams include a 111-77 loss to Minnesota on 1 June. Without it, the other eight average a 5.5-point loss and my number falls to Las Vegas by 10.55, under the pick price.
The three meetings
Phoenix won the first, 99-66 in Las Vegas on 9 May. Las Vegas won the next two, 86-76 in Phoenix on 17 June and 106-58 at home on 11 July.
That is one blowout each way and one ten-point game in Phoenix. I would not build a number on it.
Form
Las Vegas has won five straight and is 7-3 over the last ten, winning by 6.8 a game. The last two were both over Seattle, 114-77 away and 98-77 at home.
Phoenix is 3-7 over the last ten, losing by 1.6 a game, and lost 87-82 in Dallas on Saturday. The Mercury play Dallas again at home on Monday.
The total
With no total posted there is nothing to bet. Las Vegas games have a median total of 179 this season and Phoenix’s 170. Over the last ten, the Aces’ games have averaged 173.8 and the Mercury’s 171.4.
The three meetings produced 165, 162 and 164, all under both medians.
Pick: Aces -11 or shorter
Pick: Las Vegas Aces, at -11 or shorter. My number is Las Vegas by 12.15. No line had been posted when this was written, 21 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
What would change it: a line of Las Vegas -11.5 or longer is a pass. So is any sign that Las Vegas rests starters on the last night of the regular season.
Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury, Thursday 24 September 2026, 10:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. ESPN marks one Phoenix game, at Los Angeles on 11 August, as neutral-site, and it is left out of the home and road splits. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.