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Las Vegas Aces

WNBA5 predictions

The Aces were favorites in 39 of 44 games in 2026 and covered 22 of them, a rate only Golden State beat. Backing them to win every game still lost 1.48 units on a 31-13 record.

The number

31-13 straight up, a 70.5% win rate and the third-best record in the WNBA. 24 covers in 44, 54.5%, level with the Minnesota Lynx and behind two teams. A unit on the moneyline every game: -1.48 units, a -3.4% return. The spread went their way more often than not; the moneyline lost.

Las Vegas scored 91.48 points a game, second only to the Indiana Fever, and allowed 85.82.

The Aces 2026 regular season, game by game2026-05-09 v Phoenix Mercury 66-992026-05-10 at Los Angeles Sparks 105-782026-05-13 at Connecticut Sun 98-692026-05-15 at Connecticut Sun 101-942026-05-17 at Atlanta Dream 85-842026-05-23 v Los Angeles Sparks 95-1012026-05-28 at Dallas Wings 87-952026-05-31 at Golden State Valkyries 91-812026-06-02 at Los Angeles Sparks 79-692026-06-06 v Golden State Valkyries 84-792026-06-08 v Seattle Storm 101-912026-06-11 at Portland Fire 105-892026-06-13 v Minnesota Lynx 100-972026-06-15 at Dallas Wings 66-962026-06-17 at Phoenix Mercury 86-762026-06-21 v Golden State Valkyries 92-732026-06-23 v New York Liberty 76-872026-06-25 v Dallas Wings 99-842026-06-28 at Chicago Sky 107-992026-07-03 v Chicago Sky 98-902026-07-05 v Indiana Fever 68-842026-07-09 at Portland Fire 88-802026-07-11 v Phoenix Mercury 106-582026-07-12 v Indiana Fever 75-1092026-07-20 at Toronto Tempo 109-832026-07-22 at Washington Mystics 99-1002026-07-28 v Portland Fire 98-832026-07-30 v New York Liberty 104-992026-08-01 at Chicago Sky 83-842026-08-03 at Atlanta Dream 109-872026-08-06 at Indiana Fever 86-842026-08-08 at Minnesota Lynx 87-982026-08-09 at New York Liberty 71-1112026-08-11 v Washington Mystics 86-762026-08-13 v Washington Mystics 83-762026-08-15 v Minnesota Lynx 87-922026-08-18 v Atlanta Dream 82-972026-08-20 v Connecticut Sun 101-782026-08-23 at Toronto Tempo 88-782026-08-28 v Toronto Tempo 93-732026-09-17 at Seattle Storm 114-772026-09-20 v Seattle Storm 98-772026-09-22 v Los Angeles Sparks 89-792026-09-24 at Phoenix Mercury 100-82Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
31-13 in 44 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

As favorites

39 games as favorites: 29-10, 22 covers, 56.4%. Only the Golden State Valkyries covered more often when favored. On the moneyline those 39 games lost 0.6 units.

As underdogs, 5 games, the fewest in the league alongside the Atlanta Dream: 2-3, with 2 covers. The longest price they won at was +114, 109-87 at Atlanta on 3 August.

The Aces at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (22)won 15 (68.2%)covered 12 of 22 (54.5%)Away (22)won 16 (72.7%)covered 12 of 22 (54.5%)Favorite (39)won 29 (74.4%)covered 22 of 39 (56.4%)Underdog (5)won 2 (40.0%)covered 2 of 5 (40.0%)50%
2026 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Home against away

Straight up, 15-7 at home and 16-6 away. On the moneyline, -2.12 units at home and +0.64 away. Two May home defeats came at the shortest prices of the season: 99-66 to the Phoenix Mercury at -455 on 9 May, and 101-95 to the Los Angeles Sparks at -425 on 23 May. The third-shortest was on the road: 100-99 at the Washington Mystics at -240.

June was the best month: 9-2, 7 covers in 11, 1.57 units. September closed 4-0 with 3 covers. The longest winning run was seven. Both overtime games were wins: 98-90 over Chicago at home and 86-84 at Indiana.

One unit on the Aces to win, every game0-2-1+1-1.48 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 44 priced 2026 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Opponents

Golden State: 3-0, 3 covers, 2.0 units. Minnesota: 1-2 and 0 covers in 3. Phoenix and the Sparks, met four times each, both went 1-3 against Las Vegas; the Aces covered 3 of 4 against Phoenix and 2 of 4 against Los Angeles. The Dallas Wings won two of three and cost an Aces backer 1.58 units.

The Aces against the teams they played mostLos Angeles Sparks3-1, covered 2Phoenix Mercury3-1, covered 3Atlanta Dream2-1, covered 1Chicago Sky2-1, covered 2Connecticut Sun3-0, covered 2Dallas Wings1-2, covered 1Golden State Valkyries3-0, covered 3Indiana Fever1-2, covered 1
2026 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

22 overs, 22 unders. No lean.

Questions and answers

Where did the Aces rank covering as favorites in 2026?

Second in the WNBA: 22 covers in 39, 56.4%.

Did a 31-13 record make the Aces a profitable moneyline bet?

No: a unit on every game lost 1.48 units.

Did Aces games lean over or under the total?

Neither: 22 of each in 2026.

Past games

  1. Fever at Aces · 1 OctMy number is Indiana by 0.15 and the market has the Aces by 4.5.
  2. Aces at Fever · 29 SepIndiana wins its home games against winning teams by 3.4 points; Las Vegas loses its road games against them by 6.1.
  3. Fever at Aces · 27 SepMy number makes this a coin flip: Indiana by 0.15.
  4. Aces at Mercury · 24 SepLas Vegas is 11-1 on the road against losing teams.
  5. Sparks at Aces · 22 SepLas Vegas should win by about ten, and the price asks for 15.5.

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