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WNBA · Tuesday 22 September
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Sparks at Aces Final Score: Aces Win 89-79

By Marcus ReedsUpdated 24 Sep 2026

Final: Las Vegas Aces 89, Los Angeles Sparks 79, Tuesday 22 September at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Las Vegas should win by about ten, and the price asks for 15.5. Take the Sparks +15.5.” Los Angeles lost by 10, so Sparks +15.5 covered.

What decided it

Las Vegas won the first quarter by 13. Las Vegas turned the ball over 10 times to Los Angeles’s 13, and shot 49% from the field to 48%.

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Los Angeles Sparks1122182879
Las Vegas Aces2418232489
Scoring by quarter, from ESPN.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is LV -17.5, with a total of 179.5. Las Vegas did not cover as the favourite. The 168 points went under the total.

What comes next

Los Angeles plays next against the Golden State Valkyries on Thursday 24 September: our prediction. Las Vegas plays next at the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday 24 September: our prediction.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before tip-off, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Pick the Sparks +15.5 – Sparks at Aces prediction, odds and best picks”.

Las Vegas should win by about ten, and the price asks for 15.5. Take the Sparks +15.5.

Las Vegas is a 15.5-point favourite at home on Tuesday, -15.5 at -110 at DraftKings, read at 02:58 UTC on 22 September, the number it opened at. When this page first went up on 21 September there was no line, and it said Las Vegas was a bet at -8.5 or shorter. At -15.5 the same number points the other way.

The number

My figure compares like with like. Las Vegas has a winning record, so I take Los Angeles’s road games against winning teams. Los Angeles has a losing record, so I take Las Vegas’s home games against losing teams. Half the difference between the two average margins is the number.

The Sparks are 3-8 in those eleven road games and lose them by 7.8 points on average. The Aces are 7-2 in their nine home games against losing teams and win them by 11.8. Half the difference is Las Vegas by 9.8.

I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. Las Vegas by 9.8 against a line of 15.5 is a gap of 5.7 points, on Los Angeles.

Aces at home and Sparks on the road in 2026Aces at home against Sparks on the roadPoints scored per gameAces at home 90.1Sparks on the road 87.3Points allowed per gameAces at home 85.9Sparks on the road 92.1RecordAces at home 14-7Sparks on the road 8-13
Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. Games ESPN marks as neutral-site are left out of both.

How often 15.5 gets covered

The same two samples, counted against this line. Las Vegas won by more than 15.5 in four of its nine home games against losing teams. Los Angeles lost by more than 15.5 in three of its eleven road games against winning teams, so it stayed inside the number in eight.

The moneyline, Las Vegas -1450 and Los Angeles +850, prices the Aces to win 89.9% of the time once the bookmaker’s margin is out. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Las Vegas 82.4%. This is a bet on the margin, not on an upset.

Moneyline implies Sparks 10.1 percent, Aces 89.9 percentChance to win the game, as pricedSparks 10.1%Aces 89.9%From DraftKings's moneylines, Sparks +850 and Aces -1450, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-22 02:58 UTC.

The case against

Las Vegas’s nine home games against losing teams include a 106-58 win over Phoenix on 11 July, and four of the nine were won by more than this line. The Aces have also won five straight, the last two by 37 and 21, both against Seattle.

Las Vegas won 105-78 in Los Angeles on 10 May, a 27-point margin that would have covered 15.5, and 79-69 there on 2 June. Los Angeles won the one game in Las Vegas, 101-95 on 23 May.

Last ten games for Aces and SparksThe last ten games, margin in eachAces7-3, +6.8 a game-40+10+7-5-15+23+10+20+37+21Sparks4-6, -3.3 a game-4-10-8-36+9-7+6+16-20+21Coloured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

Los Angeles

The Sparks are 16-26 and lose on the road by 4.9 a game. They beat Portland 105-84 at home on Sunday after a 97-77 loss in Dallas on 17 September.

2026 point margin in every game, Aces and Sparks2026 regular season: point margin in every gameAces29-13, +5.3 a gameSparks16-26, -4.2 a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

Las Vegas is 29-13, and 11-10 against winning teams, so most of its margin comes from games like this one.

The total

The total is 178.5, where it opened, over -105 and under -115. Las Vegas games have a median total of 179 this season and Los Angeles games 181. Over the last ten, the Aces’ games have averaged 173.8 and the Sparks’ 168.1.

The medians sit on the line and the recent averages sit 4.7 and 10.4 points under it. That leans under, and it is not a bet.

2026 game totals for Aces and Sparks2026: total points in every game, against this game's 178.5130140150160170180190200210220230178.5Acesmedian 179Sparksmedian 181Each dot is one 2026 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 21 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-22 02:58 UTC.

Pick: Sparks +15.5

Pick: Los Angeles Sparks +15.5 at -110, DraftKings, read 22 September 2026 at 02:58 UTC. My number is Las Vegas by 9.8.

What would change it: at Los Angeles +10.5 or less, the gap falls under a point and I pass. So does any news that changes who plays for either team in the last week of the regular season.

Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces, Tuesday 22 September 2026, 10:00 PM ET, Michelob ULTRA Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 September 2026, 02:58 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.