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Connecticut Sun

WNBA2 predictions

Fourteen covers in 22 home games made the Sun the WNBA’s best home spread team of 2026. On the road they covered 7 of 22, and only New York did worse.

Two teams against the spread

An 11-33 team with the league’s best home cover rate? That was the Sun’s 2026. In Connecticut they went 8-14 and covered 14 times, 63.6%. Away they went 3-19 and covered 7 times, 31.8%, ahead of only the New York Liberty.

The Sun at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (22)won 8 (36.4%)covered 14 of 22 (63.6%)Away (22)won 3 (13.6%)covered 7 of 22 (31.8%)Favorite (5)won 2 (40.0%)covered 2 of 5 (40.0%)Underdog (39)won 9 (23.1%)covered 19 of 39 (48.7%)50%
2026 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Across all 44 games that came to 21 covers and 23 misses. For us the spread was a home bet and a road fade.

The price of backing them

The Sun were underdogs 39 times, more than anyone in the league, and won 9 of those. Backing them to win in all 44 lost 13.67 units; only the Toronto Tempo and the Seattle Storm lost more. The away games cost 10.76 of it.

The start did the damage. May went 2-8 and June 2-7, and those two months alone cost 9.49 units. Favored only five times, they won two, and none of the three home defeats at their shortest prices was by more than seven points: 101-97 to Toronto at -130, 89-82 to Seattle at -125, 88-81 to the Washington Mystics at -125.

The best night was 6 July: a 90-89 win at the Minnesota Lynx at +550, getting 11.5 points.

One unit on the Sun to win, every game0-10-5-13.67 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 44 priced 2026 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The scoring

Connecticut scored 78.86 points a game, the fewest in the WNBA, and allowed 88.07. Their totals still split 23 overs and 21 unders, so there was no lean for us there.

The Sun 2026 regular season, game by game2026-05-08 at New York Liberty 75-1062026-05-10 v Seattle Storm 82-892026-05-13 v Las Vegas Aces 69-982026-05-15 v Las Vegas Aces 94-1012026-05-18 at Portland Fire 82-832026-05-20 at Seattle Storm 80-782026-05-22 at Seattle Storm 59-772026-05-25 at Golden State Valkyries 70-972026-05-27 at Portland Fire 61-712026-05-30 v Los Angeles Sparks 84-812026-06-02 at Atlanta Dream 75-912026-06-05 at Chicago Sky 80-852026-06-08 v New York Liberty 80-892026-06-10 at Toronto Tempo 102-1062026-06-13 v Indiana Fever 75-852026-06-17 v Washington Mystics 81-882026-06-19 v Toronto Tempo 97-1012026-06-22 v Chicago Sky 92-632026-06-26 v Washington Mystics 68-572026-07-02 v Dallas Wings 83-862026-07-06 at Minnesota Lynx 90-892026-07-08 v Minnesota Lynx 80-862026-07-10 v Golden State Valkyries 64-792026-07-14 v Portland Fire 90-872026-07-17 at Phoenix Mercury 96-832026-07-19 at Phoenix Mercury 63-722026-07-22 at Indiana Fever 88-1232026-07-28 at Washington Mystics 84-922026-07-30 at Chicago Sky 88-942026-08-02 at Dallas Wings 63-832026-08-07 v Phoenix Mercury 75-722026-08-13 v Atlanta Dream 69-1042026-08-15 v New York Liberty 75-822026-08-18 v Los Angeles Sparks 85-772026-08-20 at Las Vegas Aces 78-1012026-08-22 at Los Angeles Sparks 68-772026-08-25 v Chicago Sky 87-812026-08-26 v Golden State Valkyries 64-892026-08-28 at Indiana Fever 91-1112026-08-30 at Dallas Wings 71-972026-09-17 at Atlanta Dream 59-1032026-09-20 v Minnesota Lynx 89-1012026-09-22 at Washington Mystics 69-792026-09-24 v Toronto Tempo 95-81Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
11-33 in 44 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Opponents

Six teams beat them in all three meetings: the Atlanta Dream, the Dallas Wings, the Golden State Valkyries, the Indiana Fever, the Las Vegas Aces and New York. Against Atlanta, Golden State and Indiana they did not cover once. The Chicago Sky, met four times, split 2-2, with three Sun covers.

Minnesota was the exception: 1-2 straight up, three covers, and 3.5 units for anyone backing the Sun to win all three. Against the Lynx, give us the points.

Questions and answers

How often did the Sun cover in their 22 home games of 2026?

14 times, 63.6%, the best home rate in the WNBA.

What was the Sun’s road record against the spread?

7 covers in 22 away games, 31.8%; only the Liberty were lower.

How many times were the Sun underdogs in 2026?

39 of their 44 games, the most in the league, winning 9.

Past games

  1. Tempo at Sun · 24 SepConnecticut is 6-2 at home against losing teams.
  2. Sun at Mystics · 22 SepWashington should win by about 14, and the price already says 14.5.

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