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Connecticut is 1-10 on the road against winning teams. Take Washington at -12.5 or shorter.
No book had a line on this game when I read the market at 16:15 UTC on 21 September, so this piece gives the price I would pay rather than the price on offer. My number is Washington by 13.8.
The number
My figure compares like with like. Washington has a winning record, so I take Connecticut’s road games against winning teams. Connecticut has a losing record, so I take Washington’s home games against losing teams. Half the difference between the two average margins is the number.
The Sun are 1-10 in those eleven road games and lose them by 22.6 points on average. The Mystics are 8-2 in their ten home games against losing teams and win them by 5.0. Half the difference is Washington by 13.8.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. That makes Washington a bet at -12.5 or shorter, and a pass at -13 or longer. ESPN’s matchup predictor agrees on the winner and gives Washington 83.8%.
Connecticut away from home
Connecticut is 10-32, last in the Eastern Conference. On the road the Sun are 3-18, scoring 77.3 and allowing 91.4: a 14.1-point average loss.
The last ten games are no better. Connecticut is 2-8 in that stretch and has lost by 15.2 a game, including 103-59 in Atlanta on 17 September. The Sun have lost five in a row.
Washington is not a big home side
This is the weak point in the call. Washington is 13-7 at home but wins there by only 1.9 a game, and the season margin is 0.9 across 42 games. The Mystics are 10-11 against winning teams and lose those by 3.6.
What they do is beat the teams below them. Eight home wins in ten against losing teams, by 5.0. Against Connecticut this season they are 2-1: 88-81 and 92-84 wins, and a 68-57 loss in Connecticut on 26 June.
Form and rest
Washington has won two straight, 110-80 in Chicago on 17 September and 93-77 in Indiana on Sunday, and is 7-3 over the last ten.
Connecticut lost 101-89 at home to Minnesota on Sunday. Both teams have had Monday off.
The total
With no total posted there is nothing to bet. For reference, Washington games have a median total of 169 this season and Connecticut games 167. Both are among the four lowest medians in the league.
The last ten games say the same. Connecticut’s have averaged 168.6 points between the two teams and Washington’s 172.8.
Pick: Mystics -12.5 or shorter
Pick: Washington Mystics, at -12.5 or shorter. My number is Washington by 13.8. No line had been posted when this was written, 21 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
What would change it: a line of Washington -13 or longer is a pass. So is any sign that Washington rests starters. The sample under the number is eleven Connecticut games and ten Washington games; the Sun’s 22.6-point average loss includes a 44-point defeat, and that is part of the reason the margin of safety is a full point.
Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics, Tuesday 22 September 2026, 7:30 PM ET, CareFirst Arena. Results: ESPN, read 21 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
