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Atlanta Dream

WNBA4 predictions

The Dream won 30 of their 44 games in 2026 and covered the spread in only 20; just two WNBA teams covered less often. In July they went 6-3 and covered once.

Back the win, not the spread

Pick the Dream to win and you were right 30 times in 44, the fourth-best record in the league. Pick them against the spread and you were right 20 times, 45.5%. Only the Phoenix Mercury and the New York Liberty covered at a lower rate. Atlanta scored 91.34 points a game, third in the WNBA, and gave up 84.48.

As favorites, 39 times, they went 28-11 and covered 17. That is where the gap sits: a team that won 71.8% of its favored games and covered 43.6% of them.

The Dream 2026 regular season, game by game2026-05-09 at Minnesota Lynx 91-902026-05-12 at Dallas Wings 77-722026-05-17 v Las Vegas Aces 84-852026-05-22 v Dallas Wings 86-692026-05-24 v Phoenix Mercury 82-802026-05-27 at Minnesota Lynx 81-962026-05-29 at Portland Fire 86-662026-06-02 v Connecticut Sun 91-752026-06-04 at Indiana Fever 71-832026-06-06 v Washington Mystics 109-772026-06-09 at Chicago Sky 82-752026-06-11 v New York Liberty 90-1042026-06-14 at Toronto Tempo 102-772026-06-18 at Indiana Fever 108-1012026-06-20 v Indiana Fever 113-962026-06-22 v Toronto Tempo 94-872026-06-24 at Golden State Valkyries 66-772026-06-26 at Golden State Valkyries 75-782026-06-27 at Seattle Storm 90-1052026-07-02 at Washington Mystics 76-812026-07-04 v Golden State Valkyries 83-882026-07-09 v Seattle Storm 89-782026-07-11 v Portland Fire 92-1022026-07-13 v Los Angeles Sparks 101-922026-07-17 at Toronto Tempo 111-922026-07-19 v Chicago Sky 93-912026-07-29 at Dallas Wings 82-812026-07-31 v Seattle Storm 98-892026-08-03 v Las Vegas Aces 87-1092026-08-05 v Phoenix Mercury 96-822026-08-07 at Washington Mystics 74-792026-08-10 v Toronto Tempo 107-952026-08-13 at Connecticut Sun 104-692026-08-16 v Indiana Fever 91-952026-08-18 at Las Vegas Aces 97-822026-08-20 at Los Angeles Sparks 124-882026-08-22 at Phoenix Mercury 99-892026-08-24 at Los Angeles Sparks 78-712026-08-28 v Portland Fire 83-1012026-08-30 v Minnesota Lynx 89-812026-09-17 v Connecticut Sun 103-592026-09-19 v Chicago Sky 106-812026-09-21 at New York Liberty 95-842026-09-23 at New York Liberty 83-65Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
30-14 in 44 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

July cost the spread bettor

July is the month to remember: 6-3 straight up, one cover in nine. September flipped it, 4-0 with four covers. August was level, 6 and 6.

The home floor was the weak spot. In Atlanta they covered 9 of 22, 40.9%; the Toronto Tempo matched that rate and only Phoenix sat below it. On the road they covered 11 of 22.

The Dream at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (22)won 15 (68.2%)covered 9 of 22 (40.9%)Away (22)won 15 (68.2%)covered 11 of 22 (50.0%)Favorite (39)won 28 (71.8%)covered 17 of 39 (43.6%)Underdog (5)won 2 (40.0%)covered 3 of 5 (60.0%)50%
2026 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The moneyline

A flat unit on Atlanta in all 44 games finished 1.94 units down. Home games lost 2.58; road games made 0.64. Two of the home defeats came against one opponent at the shortest prices of the season: the Portland Fire won 102-92 on 11 July with the Dream at -750, and 101-83 on 28 August at -850.

The Dream were underdogs five times, the fewest in the league alongside the Las Vegas Aces. They covered three of those five, and the two best prices both landed in August: 97-82 at Las Vegas at +136, and 89-81 over the Minnesota Lynx at +120.

One unit on the Dream to win, every game0-4-2-1.94 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 44 priced 2026 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Opponents

The Golden State Valkyries won all three meetings and covered every one; backing Atlanta in that series lost 3 units. The Connecticut Sun went the other way: three Dream wins, three Dream covers. Against the Indiana Fever, met four times, it was 2-2 both ways.

The Dream against the teams they played mostIndiana Fever2-2, covered 2Toronto Tempo4-0, covered 2Chicago Sky3-0, covered 1Connecticut Sun3-0, covered 3Dallas Wings3-0, covered 2Golden State Valkyries0-3, covered 0Las Vegas Aces1-2, covered 2Los Angeles Sparks3-0, covered 1
2026 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

23 overs and 21 unders. No lean on the total.

Questions and answers

How often did the Dream cover the spread in 2026?

20 times in 44 games, 45.5%; only Phoenix and New York covered less often.

What was the Dream’s home record against the spread?

9 covers in 22 home games, 40.9%, level with Toronto and ahead of only Phoenix.

Which month hurt Dream spread bettors most in 2026?

July: a 6-3 record with one cover in nine games.

Past games

  1. Dream at Mystics · 30 SepMy number is Atlanta by 0.8 and the market has the Dream by 3.5.
  2. Mystics at Dream · 27 SepAtlanta is 4-5 at home against winning teams but wins those games by 3.1 points on average.
  3. Dream at Liberty · 23 SepThe second of two games in Brooklyn in three days.
  4. Dream at Liberty · 21 SepAgainst winning teams, New York is better at home than Atlanta is on the road.

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