WNBA
WNBA · Wednesday 23 September
Dream at Liberty Final Score: Dream Win 83-65
Final: Atlanta Dream 83, New York Liberty 65, Wednesday 23 September at Barclays Center.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “The second of two games in Brooklyn in three days. No bet: the line posted at New York -1.5, and this page said before it posted that -1.5 or longer was a pass.”
What decided it
Atlanta won the second quarter by 16. Atlanta turned the ball over 6 times to New York’s 20, and shot 39% from the field to 36%.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream | 18 | 23 | 17 | 25 | 83 |
| New York Liberty | 19 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 65 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is ATL -4.5, with a total of 173.5. Atlanta covered as the favourite. The 148 points went under the total.
What comes next
ESPN lists no further game for the Atlanta Dream yet. ESPN lists no further game for the New York Liberty yet.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before tip-off, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “No bet at NY -1.5 – Dream at Liberty prediction and odds”.
The second of two games in Brooklyn in three days. No bet: the line posted at New York -1.5, and this page said before it posted that -1.5 or longer was a pass.
DraftKings now has New York -1.5 with a total of 176.5, read at 20:59 UTC on 22 September. Monday’s meeting between the same two teams has also now been played: Atlanta won it 95-84 in Brooklyn. Both changes are worked through below, and together they move my number from New York by 2.25 to New York by 1.1.
The number
Both teams have winning records, so my figure takes New York’s home games against winning teams and Atlanta’s road games against winning teams, and halves the difference between the two average margins.
When this was published New York was 5-5 in its ten and winning them by 2.5, Atlanta 5-6 in its eleven and losing by 2.0, which made New York by 2.25. Monday’s game adds one to each sample. New York is now 5-6 in eleven at plus 1.3, Atlanta 6-6 in twelve at minus 0.9, and that makes New York by 1.1.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. At New York by 1.1 that leaves a bet only at pick’em or getting points, so New York -1.5 is a pass on the number I published and on the number I hold today. ESPN’s matchup predictor had New York at 55.8% when this was written.
What is different from Monday
The rest. New York played Monday the day after a game in Toronto, and Atlanta came in off a day’s rest. By Wednesday both will have had Tuesday off.
That removes the best argument Atlanta had on Monday, when it was a 1.5-point favourite, won 95-84 and covered. The rest edge is the one thing Wednesday takes back off them.
The standings
Atlanta is 29-14 and New York 26-17, three games apart in the Eastern Conference. Against winning teams both are 10-11, and the two margins are within a point of each other: plus 0.8 for Atlanta and plus 0.2 for New York.
Atlanta’s last ten are 8-2 at 13.4 a game, New York’s 6-4 at 3.5. Two of Atlanta’s last three wins came against Connecticut and Chicago, who are 10-32 and 15-27; the third was Monday’s in Brooklyn.
The total
The total is 176.5. Both teams have a median game total of 179 this season, and their season averages sit on the posted number almost exactly: 176.6 for New York and 176.5 for Atlanta. Over the last ten, Atlanta’s games have averaged 179.6 and New York’s 172.9. There is no edge in that, so no total play.
The two meetings so far produced 194, in a 104-90 New York win in Atlanta on 11 June, and 179 on Monday. Both are over the posted 176.5, from two games.
No bet at New York -1.5
No bet. The call published on 21 September was Pick: New York Liberty, at -1 or better, with the stated condition that a line of New York -1.5 or longer is a pass. DraftKings posted New York -1.5. The pick does not clear the price it set itself, so there is nothing to play.
What would change it: New York at pick’em or getting points is a bet again at my current number of 1.1. The original call is left above exactly as it was published.
Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty, Wednesday 23 September 2026, 8:00 PM ET, Barclays Center. Results: ESPN, updated 22 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. The Commissioner’s Cup Championship of 30 June is left out of every record, as it is in the league standings. Odds: DraftKings, read 20:59 UTC on 22 September 2026. ESPN matchup predictor read 21 September 2026. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.