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Minnesota Lynx

WNBA4 predictions

The Lynx had the best record in the WNBA in 2026, 33-11, yet in July they won 9 of 11 and covered 2. On the road they went 18-4, and a unit on them there made 5.99.

What to watch: the size of the spread

A Lynx game usually asks one question. Is the number too big? In July it was. Minnesota won 9 of 11 and covered twice. Across the season they covered 24 of 44, 54.5%, behind only the Washington Mystics and the Golden State Valkyries and level with the Las Vegas Aces. May and June were the good months for the spread: 15 covers in 19. September ended 2-2 with one cover.

The Lynx 2026 regular season, game by game2026-05-09 v Atlanta Dream 90-912026-05-12 at Phoenix Mercury 88-842026-05-14 at Dallas Wings 90-862026-05-17 v Chicago Sky 79-862026-05-21 v Toronto Tempo 100-722026-05-23 at Chicago Sky 85-752026-05-27 v Atlanta Dream 96-812026-05-29 at Chicago Sky 79-582026-06-01 at Phoenix Mercury 111-772026-06-04 v Golden State Valkyries 87-842026-06-06 v Seattle Storm 88-682026-06-09 v Dallas Wings 100-762026-06-13 at Las Vegas Aces 97-1002026-06-15 v Portland Fire 107-742026-06-17 at Los Angeles Sparks 99-832026-06-19 at Golden State Valkyries 81-752026-06-21 v Washington Mystics 79-842026-06-24 at Washington Mystics 78-762026-06-28 at Dallas Wings 85-772026-07-03 at New York Liberty 86-992026-07-06 v Connecticut Sun 89-902026-07-08 at Connecticut Sun 86-802026-07-11 v New York Liberty 90-852026-07-13 v Phoenix Mercury 104-1002026-07-15 v Los Angeles Sparks 96-872026-07-18 v Portland Fire 101-932026-07-20 at Seattle Storm 105-1022026-07-22 at Seattle Storm 86-762026-07-28 v Toronto Tempo 100-932026-07-30 at Toronto Tempo 104-722026-08-02 v Indiana Fever 108-1002026-08-06 v Los Angeles Sparks 82-892026-08-08 v Las Vegas Aces 98-872026-08-09 v Dallas Wings 103-902026-08-12 at Portland Fire 85-812026-08-15 at Las Vegas Aces 92-872026-08-19 at Golden State Valkyries 77-662026-08-21 at Washington Mystics 94-842026-08-24 v Golden State Valkyries 66-802026-08-30 at Atlanta Dream 81-892026-09-18 v New York Liberty 81-932026-09-20 at Connecticut Sun 101-892026-09-22 at Indiana Fever 77-962026-09-24 v Indiana Fever 86-66Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
33-11 in 44 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Home prices

The shortest prices went wrong at home. The Los Angeles Sparks won 89-82 there with Minnesota at -1650. Washington won 84-79 at -1000. The Connecticut Sun won 90-89 at -800. Backing the Lynx in every home game finished 0.09 units down. Away it made 5.99, third behind Washington and Portland. Straight up: 15-7 at home, 18-4 away. Against the spread the gap was smaller: 11 covers in 22 at home, 13 in 22 away. None of their 44 games went to overtime.

The Lynx at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (22)won 15 (68.2%)covered 11 of 22 (50.0%)Away (22)won 18 (81.8%)covered 13 of 22 (59.1%)Favorite (37)won 29 (78.4%)covered 18 of 37 (48.6%)Underdog (7)won 4 (57.1%)covered 6 of 7 (85.7%)50%
2026 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

When they get points

Minnesota were underdogs seven times. They won four and covered six, the best underdog cover rate in the league. Those seven games made 2.94 units. Two of the wins came at +170 and +160: 88-84 at the Phoenix Mercury on 12 May, and 86-66 at home over the Indiana Fever on 24 September. As favorites they covered 18 of 37.

One unit on the Lynx to win, every game0+2+4+6+8+5.91 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 44 priced 2026 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Opponents

The Dallas Wings are the clearest case. Four meetings, four Lynx wins, four covers. Phoenix lost all three and handed a Lynx backer 2.51 units. Golden State, also met four times, lost three. The New York Liberty beat them in two of three.

They allowed 83.66 points a game, third fewest in the league, and won ten straight at their best. The total gave us nothing: 23 overs, 21 unders.

Questions and answers

How did the Lynx do against the spread in 2026?

24 covers in 44 games, 54.5%; in July, 2 covers in 11.

Where did the Lynx make money in 2026?

Away from Minnesota: 18-4 and 5.99 units made, against a 15-7 home record that lost 0.09 units.

What was the Lynx’s cover rate when getting points in 2026?

6 covers in 7 games as underdogs, the best rate in the WNBA.

Past games

  1. Lynx at Liberty · 29 SepMy number has Minnesota by 0.3 and the market has the Lynx by 2.5.
  2. Liberty at Lynx · 27 SepMinnesota is 8-4 at home against winning teams and wins those games by 5.6 points on average.
  3. Fever at Lynx · 24 SepIn Minneapolis the numbers turn toward Minnesota.
  4. Lynx at Fever · 22 SepThis game is a coin flip and Indiana is getting points.

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