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WNBA · Tuesday 29 September

Pick the Liberty – Lynx at Liberty prediction, odds and best picks

By Marcus ReedsUpdated 29 Sep 2026

My number has Minnesota by 0.3 and the market has the Lynx by 2.5. Take the Liberty at +1.5 or longer.

Update, 29 September, 20:00 UTC: DraftKings now has New York +3.5 (Minnesota -3.5), a point more than when this was written. The pick stands, at a better number.

DraftKings has Minnesota -2.5 at -115 and New York +2.5 at -105, read at 16:39 UTC on 28 September. The gap between my number and that price is 2.2 points. New York leads the best-of-three first-round series 1-0 after winning Game 1 91-75 in Minneapolis on 27 September. Every figure below comes from the 2026 regular season, so Game 1 is not in any of them.

The number

Both teams finished with a winning record, so my figure takes each side’s games against winning opponents only: New York’s home games and Minnesota’s road games. New York is 5-7 in those twelve home games and loses them by 0.3 points on average. Minnesota is 7-4 in its eleven road games against winning teams and wins them by 0.3. Half the difference between the two is Minnesota by 0.3.

I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. That makes New York a bet at +1.5 or longer. Anywhere from Lynx -1 to Lynx +0.5 is a pass, and Minnesota becomes the bet only as an underdog of a point or more.

The market has moved away from New York. DraftKings opened Minnesota -1.5 and the Lynx moneyline has gone from -125 to -148, with New York out from +105 to +124.

Moneyline implies Lynx 57.2 percent, Liberty 42.8 percentChance to win the game, as pricedLynx 57.2%Liberty 42.8%From DraftKings's moneylines, Lynx -148 and Liberty +124, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 16:39 UTC.

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives New York a 54.6% chance to win. The DraftKings moneyline implies 42.8%. The predictor sits on my side of this game, and further from the market than I do.

Liberty at home and Lynx on the road in 2026Liberty at home against Lynx on the roadPoints scored per gameLiberty at home 86.0Lynx on the road 89.4Points allowed per gameLiberty at home 81.7Lynx on the road 82.4RecordLiberty at home 14-8Lynx on the road 18-4
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. Games ESPN marks as neutral-site are left out of both.

The samples

The New York number rests on one game. The Liberty beat Las Vegas 111-71 at home on 9 August, a 40-point margin, the largest in either split. Take it away and New York’s home figure is -4.0, which moves my number to Minnesota by 2.1. Against a line of 2.5, that is a pass.

The rest of New York’s home games against winning teams run the other way. They lost the last two of them, to Atlanta by 11 on 21 September and by 18 on 23 September, and a 19-point loss to Golden State on 27 August sits in the same set.

Minnesota’s eleven road games are steadier, from an 11-point win at Golden State on 19 August to a 19-point loss at Indiana on 22 September. So the bet is a real edge by the method and a fragile one by the sample. One game is carrying it. That is said here so nobody reads 2.2 points as more than it is.

The season series

New York won two of the three regular-season meetings. The Liberty won the opener at home, 99-86 on 3 July. Minnesota won 90-85 at home on 11 July. New York took the last one 93-81 in Minneapolis on 18 September.

2026 point margin in every game, Liberty and Lynx2026 regular season: point margin in every gameLiberty26-18, +3.2 a gameLynx33-11, +7.2 a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

The 13-point home win on 3 July is one of the twelve New York games in my number. Three meetings is not a sample to price on, and it is stated as a fact about the season rather than folded into the pick.

Form

Minnesota went 6-4 over its last ten regular-season games, winning by 0.9 a game. The finish was a 19-point loss at Indiana on 22 September and a 20-point home win over Indiana two days later.

New York also went 6-4, winning by 3.1 a game, with a 37-point win at Toronto on 20 September inside that stretch. The Liberty then closed the regular season with those two home losses to Atlanta.

Last ten games for Liberty and LynxThe last ten games, margin in eachLiberty6-4, +3.1 a game+4+7-7+7-19+19+12+37-11-18Lynx6-4, +0.9 a game+4+5+11+10-14-8-12+12-19+20Coloured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

Both teams played Game 1 on 27 September, so neither carries a rest edge into Tuesday.

The total

DraftKings has the total at 172.5, up from 170.5 at the open, with -110 on both sides. My method prices the side only, so the total is not a bet here. Minnesota’s games have a median total of 176 this season and New York’s have 179. Minnesota went over 172.5 in 25 of its 44 games; New York did in 27 of 44.

2026 game totals for Liberty and Lynx2026: total points in every game, against this game's 172.5130140150160170180190200210220230172.5Libertymedian 179Lynxmedian 176Each dot is one 2026 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 16:39 UTC.

The three regular-season meetings landed at 185, 175 and 174, all over this number. Three games prove nothing about a total, and this is not a bet.

Pick: Liberty +2.5

Pick: New York Liberty +2.5, playable to +1.5. My number is Minnesota by 0.3. Price read at DraftKings, 28 September 2026 at 16:39 UTC.

What would change it: a line of Lynx -1 or shorter is a pass, and Minnesota as an underdog of a point or more makes the Lynx the bet. This piece carries no injury information and none is claimed; a reported change to either starting lineup would also change the call.

Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty, Tuesday 29 September 2026, 8:30 PM ET, Barclays Center. Game 2 of a best-of-three first-round series. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026, regular season only, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game; Nucleus has not yet added Minnesota’s or New York’s games against Portland Fire, so those three rest on ESPN alone. Line and moneyline: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026 at 16:39 UTC. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.