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Minnesota is 8-4 at home against winning teams and wins those games by 5.6 points on average. Take the Lynx at -2 or shorter.
No book had a line on this game when I read the market at 14:21 UTC on 25 September, so this piece gives the price I would pay. My number is Minnesota by 3.3. This is Game 1 of a best-of-three first-round series, and every figure below comes from the completed 2026 regular season; there is no playoff result yet to add to it.
The number
Both teams finished with a winning record, so my figure takes each side’s games against winning opponents only: Minnesota’s home games and New York’s road games. Minnesota is 8-4 in those twelve home games and wins them by 5.6 points on average. New York is 5-5 in its ten road games against winning teams and loses them by 1.0 point. Half the difference between the two is Minnesota by 3.3.
I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart, which makes Minnesota a bet at -2 or shorter and a pass at -2.5 or longer. ESPN’s matchup predictor carries no projection for this game yet, so there is nothing from it to check the number against.
The samples
Minnesota’s twelve home games against winning teams include two losses of five points or fewer and two more in double digits, a 14-point loss to Golden State on 24 August and a 12-point loss to New York itself on 18 September. The other side of the ledger has three wins of 15 or more, a 24-point win over Dallas on 9 June among them.
New York’s ten road games against winning teams include two blowout losses at Indiana, 20 points on 18 July and 14 on 11 August. Strip those two out and the Liberty are 5-3 in the other eight, winning by 3.0 a game, close to the number either way.
The season series
Minnesota and New York have already met three times in 2026, and New York has won two of the three. The Liberty took the opener at home, 99-86 on 3 July. The Lynx won the rematch in Minneapolis, 90-85 on 11 July. New York closed the series with a 93-81 win in Minneapolis on 18 September, its only game against Minnesota since.
Three games, split 2-1 to the team I have as the underdog here, is not a sample I would build a number on. It runs against the pick, which is why it is stated rather than left out.
Form
New York is 6-4 over its last ten and outscored its opponents by 3.1 a game in that span, a number the 20 September, 106-69 rout of Toronto is doing a lot of work for. The Liberty then lost their last two games of the regular season to Atlanta, by 11 on 21 September and 18 on 23 September.
Minnesota is also 6-4 over its last ten, winning by 0.9 a game, a softer stretch than its season number. A 19-point road loss to Indiana on 22 September was followed two days later by a 20-point home win over the same team in the regular-season finale.
Minnesota goes into Sunday on two days of rest since that finale. New York has three, since the loss at Atlanta on 23 September.
The total
With no total posted there is nothing to bet. Minnesota’s games have a median total of 176 this season; New York’s is 179. Neither team has played the other since 18 September, so the total carries no fresher history to lean on than the season figures.
Pick: Lynx -2 or shorter
Pick: Minnesota Lynx, at -2 or shorter. My number is Minnesota by 3.3. No line had been posted when this was written, 25 September 2026 at 14:21 UTC.
What would change it: a line of Minnesota -2.5 or longer is a pass. This piece carries no injury information and none is claimed; a reported change to either starting lineup would too.
New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx, Sunday 27 September 2026, 2:00 PM ET, Target Center. Game 1 of a best-of-three first-round series. Results: ESPN, read 25 September 2026, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game; Nucleus has not yet added Minnesota’s or New York’s games against Portland Fire, so those three rest on ESPN alone. ESPN’s matchup predictor carried no projection for this game. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.
