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WNBA · Tuesday 29 September

Pick the Fever – Aces at Fever prediction, odds and best picks

By Marcus ReedsUpdated 29 Sep 2026

Indiana wins its home games against winning teams by 3.4 points; Las Vegas loses its road games against them by 6.1. Take the Fever at -3.5 or shorter.

DraftKings has Indiana -1.5 at -102, read at 16:39 UTC on 28 September. My number is Indiana by 4.75, a gap of 3.25 points. Las Vegas leads the best-of-three first-round series 1-0 after winning Game 1 102-85 in Las Vegas on 27 September. Every figure below comes from the 2026 regular season, so Game 1 is not in any of them.

The number

Both teams finished with a winning record, so my figure takes each side’s games against winning opponents only: Indiana’s home games and Las Vegas’s road games. Indiana is 6-6 in those twelve home games and wins them by 3.4 points on average. Las Vegas is 4-5 in its nine road games against winning teams and loses them by 6.1. Half the difference between the two is Indiana by 4.75.

I play a side when my number and the price are at least a point apart. That makes Indiana a bet at -3.5 or shorter and a pass from -4 to -5.5. Las Vegas becomes a bet only if Indiana is favoured by 6 or more. The line opened at Indiana -1.5 and has not moved; the moneyline has, from -110 on both sides to Indiana -115 and Las Vegas -105.

Moneyline implies Aces 48.9 percent, Fever 51.1 percentChance to win the game, as pricedAces 48.9%Fever 51.1%From DraftKings's moneylines, Aces -105 and Fever -115, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 16:39 UTC.

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Indiana a 52.4% chance to win, against 51.1% in the DraftKings moneyline. It leans the same way I do. It leans by less.

Fever at home and Aces on the road in 2026Fever at home against Aces on the roadPoints scored per gameFever at home 99.1Aces on the road 92.9Points allowed per gameFever at home 90.5Aces on the road 86.1RecordFever at home 15-7Aces on the road 16-6
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. Games ESPN marks as neutral-site are left out of both.

The samples

Nine road games is a thin sample, and two of them carry most of the Las Vegas number. The Aces lost by 40 at New York on 9 August and by 30 at Dallas on 15 June. Take away the New York game alone and Las Vegas’s road figure is -1.9, which puts my number at Indiana by 2.65. That is still more than a point clear of the price.

Indiana’s twelve home games are more even: six wins, six losses, with a 20-point win over New York on 18 July at the top and a 16-point loss to Washington on 20 September at the bottom. Take away that New York win as well as the Las Vegas blowout and the number falls to Indiana by 1.9, inside the threshold. So the bet needs at least one of those two games to count. It is a small edge on small samples, and it is stated that way.

The season series

Indiana won two of the three regular-season meetings, both in Las Vegas: 84-68 on 5 July and 109-75 on 12 July. Las Vegas won the only one played in Indianapolis, 86-84 on 6 August.

2026 point margin in every game, Fever and Aces2026 regular season: point margin in every gameFever28-16, +5.5 a gameAces31-13, +5.7 a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

That 86-84 game is one of Indiana’s twelve home games in my number, a two-point loss. Three meetings is too few to price on their own, and the one in this building was decided by a single basket.

Form

Las Vegas finished the regular season 8-2 over its last ten, winning by 12.6 a game, and won its last seven. That run includes a 37-point win at Seattle on 17 September and an 18-point win at Phoenix on 24 September to close the season.

Indiana went 6-4 over its last ten, winning by 4.1 a game. Its last three swung hard: a 16-point home loss to Washington on 20 September, a 19-point home win over Minnesota two days later, and a 20-point loss at Minnesota on 24 September.

Last ten games for Fever and AcesThe last ten games, margin in eachFever6-4, +4.1 a game+4+6-6-7+23+20+18-16+19-20Aces8-2, +12.6 a game+7-5-15+23+10+20+37+21+10+18Coloured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, oldest game on the left.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game.

Both teams played Game 1 on 27 September, so neither carries a rest edge into Tuesday.

The total

DraftKings has the total at 183.5, unchanged from its opening number, with -110 on both sides. My method prices the side only, so the total is not a bet here. Indiana’s games have a median total of 186 this season and Las Vegas’s have 179. Indiana went over 183.5 in 25 of its 44 games; Las Vegas did in 14 of 44.

2026 game totals for Fever and Aces2026: total points in every game, against this game's 183.5140150160170180190200210220230183.5Fevermedian 186Acesmedian 179Each dot is one 2026 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; every final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 16:39 UTC.

The three regular-season meetings landed at 152, 184 and 170. They split around the line and settle nothing.

Pick: Fever -1.5

Pick: Indiana Fever -1.5, playable to -3.5. My number is Indiana by 4.75. Price read at DraftKings, 28 September 2026 at 16:39 UTC.

What would change it: a line of Indiana -4 or longer is a pass, and Indiana -6 or longer makes Las Vegas the bet. This piece carries no injury information and none is claimed; a reported change to either starting lineup would also change the call.

Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever, Tuesday 29 September 2026, 6:30 PM ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Game 2 of a best-of-three first-round series. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026, regular season only, each final checked against Nucleus where Nucleus holds the game; Nucleus has not yet added Indiana’s or Las Vegas’s games against Portland Fire, so those two rest on ESPN alone. Line and moneyline: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026 at 16:39 UTC. Every WNBA game: WNBA predictions.