Slovenia vs Scotland Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on Slovenia at Scotland. The market makes Scotland the favourite at 54.1%, and nothing in the results these two teams hold can say whether that price is wrong.

DraftKings, read via ESPN on 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC, has Scotland at -140, the draw at +245 and Slovenia at +390. The book’s margin is 7.7 points across the three. Taken out, the prices leave 54.1% for Scotland, 26.9% for the draw and 18.9% for Slovenia.

The total is 2.5 goals, with the over at +130 and the under at -165. Without the margin, the over is a 41.1% chance.

Why there is no bet

For club soccer our method is one clause: each side’s expected goals come from its scoring rate at this venue and the opponent’s conceding rate at the other, both against the league average, in a Poisson model. A side or the draw is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s.

That needs a league, where every team plays the same opponents. National teams have none. The results ESPN holds for Scotland and Slovenia since September 2024 are Nations League and World Cup qualifying games, spread across divisions and groups of very different strength. A goal against the weakest team in a group counts the same as one against the strongest, and the method has no way to tell them apart.

This Nations League season is too young to fix that. On 6 October, Scotland had played three games in it and Slovenia three, fewer than the four we need before any bet.

Scotland at home, Slovenia away

Since September 2024, Scotland have played 8 competitive games at home. They won 4, drew 1 and lost 3, scoring 12 and conceding 13: 1.5 and 1.62 a game.

Slovenia played 8 away in the same span. The record is 1-4-3, with 4 scored and 10 conceded, or 0.5 and 1.25 a game.

Across every competitive game in that window, Scotland are 8-3-6 in 17 and Slovenia are 4-8-5 in 17. Those records include games against sides from other divisions, so they rank neither team.

In Group B1 of this Nations League, on 6 October, Slovenia are second with 4 points from 3 games, 3 scored and 2 conceded. Scotland are third with 4 points from 3, 2 scored and 3 conceded.

Head to head

ESPN lists five earlier meetings between the two. The latest, on 26 September 2026, ended Slovenia 0, Scotland 0.

• 26 September 2026: Slovenia 0, Scotland 0
• 8 October 2017: Slovenia 2, Scotland 2
• 26 March 2017: Scotland 1, Slovenia 0
• 29 February 2012: Slovenia 1, Scotland 1
• 12 October 2005: Slovenia 0, Scotland 3

The first of them was in 2005. Five games prove nothing about Tuesday.

The total

Of Scotland’s 17 competitive games since September 2024, 10 finished with three goals or more. Slovenia’s went that way in 6 of 17.

The market prices the over 2.5 at 41.1% with the margin out. The same problem applies here as to the result: those games were played against opponents of every level, so the rates do not price this total. No bet on it.

Pick: no bet

No bet on Slovenia at Scotland: not Scotland at -140, not the draw at +245, not Slovenia at +390, and not the total of 2.5.

What would change it is a sample where the opponents are comparable. The group stage adds one game at a time to that: on 6 October, Scotland had played three group games. Nothing on this page says who is fit or selected for Tuesday; check the lineups before any bet on this game.

Slovenia at Scotland, Tuesday 6 October, 2:45 PM ET, Hampden Park. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 04:37 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.