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Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October

VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

No bet on VfB Stuttgart at SC Paderborn 07. Paderborn have 2 home games this season, fewer than the 6 the method needs, and no home record of 4 games or more from last season in this league.

DraftKings has VfB Stuttgart at -185, the draw at +350 and SC Paderborn 07 at +370. With the book’s 8.4% margin taken out, that is 59.9% for Stuttgart, 20.5% for the draw and 19.6% for Paderborn. We have no number to set against it, so there is no gap to measure.

Why there is no number

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away. It uses a side’s record at the venue this season from 6 games.

When a side has fewer than 6 this season, the method takes its record at the same venue from last season. Paderborn have neither. They have 2 home games in 2026-27, and they do not appear in ESPN’s 2025-26 Bundesliga table, so there is no home record to borrow. Stuttgart have 2 away games this season and a full 2025-26 away record of 17 games, which is enough on their side alone.

Paderborn are 1-0-1 at home, wins first, with 3 scored and 2 conceded. Stuttgart are 0-0-2 away, with 2 scored and 7 conceded. Last season Stuttgart went 6-5-6 away, scoring 2.41 a game and conceding 1.94.

SC Paderborn 07 at home and VfB Stuttgart awaySC Paderborn 07 at home and VfB Stuttgart away, this season and lastSC Paderborn 07 at home, 2026-27 German Bundesliga1-0-1 in 2scored 1.50 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameVfB Stuttgart away, 2026-27 German Bundesliga0-0-2 in 2scored 1.00 a gameconceded 3.50 a gameVfB Stuttgart away, 2025-26 German Bundesliga6-5-6 in 17scored 2.41 a gameconceded 1.94 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Four games in, SC Paderborn 07 are 12th of 18 with 4 points, 1-1-2, and VfB Stuttgart are 15th with 3, 1-0-3. Stuttgart have conceded 9 goals in 4 games. Last season they finished 4th with 62 points from 34 games, 18-8-8.

SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastSC Paderborn 072026-27 German Bundesliga12 of 18, 4 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliganot in this leagueVfB Stuttgart2026-27 German Bundesliga15 of 18, 3 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliga4 of 18, 62 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Four games prove little either way. Stuttgart’s 1-0-3 start sits beside 18 wins in 34 games last season, and Paderborn’s 4 points come from the same number of games.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. SC Paderborn 07 have 2 home games and no earlier Bundesliga home record in ESPN’s tables, short of the 6 the method needs.

Prices were read on 8 October 2026 at 07:39 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. They do not change the call.

What changes it

Four more Paderborn home games. With 6 at home this season, the method runs, but that cannot happen before this game is played.

A price is not the only unknown. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 3.5 goals, over -110 and under -115. Stuttgart’s 4 league games this season went over 3.5 twice, and Paderborn’s once. We have no Poisson count for this game, and the total is never a bet on these pages.

ESPN holds 4 meetings. Stuttgart won 3 of them, the last 2-1 at Paderborn on 31 January 2023, and the other, on 20 December 2014, was a 0-0 at Stuttgart. They are not in the method.

Last meetings of SC Paderborn 07 and VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart: the last meetings ESPN holds31 Jan 2023SC Paderborn 07 1-2 VfB Stuttgart23 May 2015SC Paderborn 07 1-2 VfB Stuttgart20 Dec 2014VfB Stuttgart 0-0 SC Paderborn 0731 Oct 2007VfB Stuttgart 3-2 SC Paderborn 07Home side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

VfB Stuttgart at SC Paderborn 07, German Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October, 9:30 AM ET, Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:39 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.