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LaLiga · Saturday 10 October

Atlético Madrid vs Alavés Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

Bet Alavés at +320. The bet holds down to +260. Our number makes them 31.5% to beat Atlético Madrid at Mendizorrotza, against 22.7% in the market.

DraftKings has Alavés at +320, the draw at +275 and Atlético Madrid at -120. With the book’s 5.0% margin taken out, that is 22.7% for Alavés, 25.4% for the draw and 51.9% for Atlético. Our number gives Alavés 31.5%, the draw 26.1% and Atlético 42.4%.

The gap on Alavés is 8.8 points. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. The draw sits 0.7 points above the market and Atlético 9.5 below, so Alavés is the only outcome that clears it. Our number still has Atlético as the likelier winner; the bet is that Alavés win more often than +320 says.

Our number gives Alavés 31.5 percent, the market 22.7 percentAtlético Madrid at Alavés: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals31.5%26.1%42.4%The market1X2 prices, margin removed22.7%25.4%51.9%Prices: Alavés +320, draw +275, Atlético Madrid -120. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.AlavésAtlético Madrid
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away.

Both numbers come from last season. Alavés have played 4 home games this season and Atlético Madrid 3 away games, and the method uses this season’s record at the venue from 6 games, so each side takes its 2025-26 LALIGA record at that venue, against that season’s averages of 1.57 goals a game for the home side and 1.12 for the visitor, over 380 games.

Alavés at home in 2025-26 went 7-6-6 in 19, wins first, scoring 1.32 a game and conceding 1.32. Atlético Madrid away went 6-5-8 in 19, scoring 1.21 and conceding 1.42. Alavés’ home scoring is 0.84 times the league’s home average and Atlético’s away conceding 0.90 times it, which gives Alavés 1.19 expected goals. Atlético’s away scoring at 1.08 times the away average, against Alavés conceding at 1.17 times it, gives Atlético 1.42.

Alavés at home and Atlético Madrid awayAlavés at home and Atlético Madrid away, this season and lastAlavés at home, 2026-27 Spanish LALIGA3-0-1 in 4scored 2.25 a gameconceded 0.75 a gameAlavés at home, 2025-26 Spanish LALIGA (our number)7-6-6 in 19scored 1.32 a gameconceded 1.32 a gameAtlético Madrid away, 2026-27 Spanish LALIGA2-0-1 in 3scored 2.00 a gameconceded 1.33 a gameAtlético Madrid away, 2025-26 Spanish LALIGA (our number)6-5-8 in 19scored 1.21 a gameconceded 1.42 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Seven games in, Atlético Madrid are 2nd of 20 with 16 points, 5-1-1, and Alavés are 6th with 11, 3-2-2. Last season Atlético finished 4th with 69 points and Alavés 14th with 43.

Alavés and Atlético Madrid in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastAlavés2026-27 Spanish LALIGA6 of 20, 11 pts in 72025-26 Spanish LALIGA14 of 20, 43 pts in 38Atlético Madrid2026-27 Spanish LALIGA2 of 20, 16 pts in 72025-26 Spanish LALIGA4 of 20, 69 pts in 38Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the call is Atlético’s season. They have 5 wins in 7 and sit 5 points above Alavés, and in 3 away games they have scored 2.00 a game against 1.21 away last season. Alavés’ own start points the other way: 3-0-1 in 4 home games, scoring 2.25 a game and conceding 0.75, against 1.32 and 1.32 last season. Four and three games are too few for the method, which is why it uses last season. If Atlético’s start is the better guide, our number is too high on Alavés.

Pick: Alavés +320

Alavés to win, at +320 at DraftKings, read on 8 October 2026 at 07:40 UTC. The gap is 8.8 points against a threshold of 5. It stays a bet down to +260, if the book keeps its margin. At +259 or shorter the gap is under 5 points and it is no bet.

What changes it

The price. A longer price on Alavés widens the gap; a shorter one past +260 closes it. The draw would become a bet at +352 or longer, and Atlético Madrid at +155 or longer.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The sample. Once Alavés have 6 home games and Atlético Madrid 6 away games this season, the method switches to this season’s records, and the number moves with it.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 2.5 goals, over -115 and under -105. With the margin out, the market makes the over 51.1%. Our Poisson count gives 48.4%, which puts the under 2.7 points above the market. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the goals.

The last five meetings ESPN holds went two wins to Atlético Madrid, one to Alavés and two draws. The last three at Alavés’ ground were a 2-0 Alavés win on 21 April 2024, a 0-0 on 3 May 2025 and a 1-1 on 30 August 2025. They are not in the method.

Last meetings of Alavés and Atlético MadridAlavés and Atlético Madrid: the last meetings ESPN holds18 Jan 2026Atlético Madrid 1-0 Alavés30 Aug 2025Alavés 1-1 Atlético Madrid3 May 2025Alavés 0-0 Atlético Madrid23 Nov 2024Atlético Madrid 2-1 Alavés21 Apr 2024Alavés 2-0 Atlético MadridHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Atlético Madrid at Alavés, LaLiga, Saturday 10 October, 10:15 AM ET, Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.