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Alavés

LaLigaNext: vs Atlético, Sat4 predictions

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LaLigaSat 10 Oct
Atlético Madrid
at
Alavés
SpreadTotalMoneyATM-0.5U 2.5-120ALA+0.5O 2.5+320
Our call

Bet Alavés at +320. The bet holds down to +260. Our number makes them 31.5% to beat Atlético Madrid at Mendizorrotza, against 22.7% in the…

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Keylor SantosRead the predictionAtlético at Alavés prediction

Sixteen of the 24 priced Alavés games in 2025-26 went over the total, a rate only one LaLiga club topped. Watch the goals before the result: Alavés were underdog in 16 of those games and still lost only 2.5 units backing them in every one.

The 2025-26 season

Alavés went 11-10-17 in 38 games, scoring 44 and conceding 56. Home was where the points came: 7-6-6 there against 4-4-11 away. Of 21 games settled by a single goal they won 10 and lost 11, and they never strung more than two wins together.

Alavés 2025-26 season, game by game2025-08-16 v Levante 2-12025-08-22 at Real Betis 0-12025-08-30 v Atlético Madrid 1-12025-09-13 at Athletic Club 1-02025-09-20 v Sevilla 1-22025-09-24 at Getafe 1-12025-09-27 at Mallorca 0-12025-10-05 v Elche 3-12025-10-20 v Valencia 0-02025-10-26 at Rayo Vallecano 0-12025-11-02 v Espanyol 2-12025-11-08 at Girona 0-12025-11-22 v Celta Vigo 0-12025-11-29 at Barcelona 1-32025-12-06 v Real Sociedad 1-02025-12-14 v Real Madrid 1-22025-12-20 at Osasuna 0-32026-01-04 v Real Oviedo 1-12026-01-10 at Villarreal 1-32026-01-18 at Atlético Madrid 0-12026-01-25 v Real Betis 2-12026-01-30 at Espanyol 2-12026-02-08 v Getafe 0-22026-02-14 at Sevilla 1-12026-02-23 v Girona 2-22026-02-27 at Levante 0-22026-03-08 at Valencia 2-32026-03-13 v Villarreal 1-12026-03-22 at Celta Vigo 4-32026-04-05 v Osasuna 2-22026-04-11 at Real Sociedad 3-32026-04-21 at Real Madrid 1-22026-04-25 v Mallorca 2-12026-05-02 v Athletic Club 2-42026-05-09 at Elche 1-12026-05-13 v Barcelona 1-02026-05-17 at Real Oviedo 1-02026-05-23 v Rayo Vallecano 1-2Wins above the line, losses below, draws on it; bar length is the margin0
11-10-17 in 38 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Underdog twice as often as favorite

Sixteen of the 24 games ESPN priced between December and May had Alavés as the outsider. They went 3-5-8 there, and every one of the three wins paid big: 2-1 at Espanyol at +360 on 30 January, 4-3 at Celta Vigo at +330 on 22 March, and 1-0 at home to Barcelona at +200 on 13 May. Only three LaLiga clubs were underdog more often. As favorite, eight times, Alavés went 4-2-2 for +1.6 units.

Alavés at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (19)won 7 (36.8%)Away (19)won 4 (21.1%)Favorite (8)won 4 (50.0%)Underdog (16)won 3 (18.8%)50%
2025-26 season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

One unit a game: -2.5

Backing Alavés to win in all 24 priced games lost 2.5 units, 10.4% of the stake; thirteen LaLiga clubs did better and six did worse. January, at 2-1-2, made +2.25. February cost 4.0: two draws, two defeats, no win.

One unit on Alavés to win, every game0-4-2+2-2.50 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 24 priced 2025-26 league games (December to May), at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Espanyol, Real Madrid, Rayo

Alavés beat Espanyol in both meetings. Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano each won both of theirs.

The total

Here is the lean, and it is the overs. Alavés games beat the total 16 times in 24, 66.7%; only Elche’s went over more often, and an Alavés league game carried 2.63 goals on average, both teams counted.

Questions and answers

Did Alavés games lean over or under the total in 2025-26?

Over: 16 times in 24 priced LaLiga games, 66.7%, the second-highest rate of the 20 clubs.

Did Alavés win as underdog?

Three times in 16 (3-5-8): at Espanyol at +360, at Celta Vigo at +330 and at home to Barcelona at +200.

Was Alavés stronger at home or away?

At home: 7-6-6 there against 4-4-11 on the road, where they won four of 19.

Past games

  1. Alavés at Athletic · 19 SepAthletic Club host Alavés in La Liga Matchday 7 on Saturday, September 19, 2026 at San Mamés.
  2. Valencia at Alavés · 15 SepThe Alavés vs Valencia recap became a direct reversal of the pregame form argument.
  3. Alavés at Racing · 12 SepThe Racing Santander vs Alaves recap was decided by Yassir Zabiri and landed exactly on the right side of the ScoresAndStats total.

LaLiga teams