Serie A
Serie A · Sunday 11 October
AS Roma vs Como Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet Como at +145. The bet holds down to -108.
DraftKings has Como at +145, the draw at +240 and AS Roma at +155. The book’s margin is 9.4 points across the three. Taken out, the market gives Como 37.3%, the draw 26.9% and AS Roma 35.8%.
Our number gives Como 52.7%, the draw 25.1% and AS Roma 22.2%. That is 15.4 points above the market on Como. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s. Como is the only one that clears it: the draw sits 1.8 points below the market and AS Roma 13.6 below.
How the number is built
The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals, meaning the goals its rates point to, are the league’s average at that venue times the side’s scoring rate there times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both against the league average, and a Poisson model on the two figures gives home, draw and away.
Both sides’ rates come from last season. Como have played 1 home game in Serie A this season and AS Roma 2 away, fewer than the 6 the method needs, so each side’s figure is its 2025-26 record at the venue, against the 2025-26 league averages: 1.28 goals a game for the home side and 1.15 for the away side.
Como at home in 2025-26 went 10-6-3 (wins, draws, losses) over 19 games, scoring 1.84 a game and conceding 0.79. AS Roma away went 10-1-8 over 19, scoring 1.37 and conceding 1.11.
Against the averages, Como scored at 1.44 times the league rate at home and AS Roma conceded at 0.87 of it away. That gives Como 1.60 expected goals. AS Roma scored at 1.19 times the rate away and Como conceded at 0.69 of it at home, which gives AS Roma 0.94.
The table, this season and last
AS Roma lead Serie A after five games, with 13 points from 4-1-0, 14 goals scored and 3 conceded. Como are 8th of 20 with 10 points from 3-1-1, 9 scored and 6 conceded. Last season AS Roma finished 3rd with 73 points and Como 4th with 71.
The case against the call is this season. AS Roma have won both away games in 2026-27, scoring 6 and conceding none. Como have played once at home, a 2-1 win. Those results lean to AS Roma, and the table puts them first. They are three games at the venue, too few for the method and too few to prove anything, so the number rests on the 38 games of last season, when Como lost 3 of 19 at home and AS Roma lost 8 of 19 away.
Pick: Como +145
Como to win at +145. With the margin at 9.4 points, Como stays a bet down to -108. Shorter than that, our 52.7% is less than 5 points above the market’s and it is a pass.
What changes it
The price. Como shorter than -108 ends the bet. AS Roma would need +432 or longer to become one, and the draw +355 or longer. Those lines assume the book’s margin stays where it is.
The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side on 11 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The line is 2.5 goals, over -165 and under +125. Our number puts the over at 46.5% and the under at 53.5%. The market, margin removed, has the over at 58.3%, so ours is 11.8 points lower on the over. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.
The last meetings
ESPN lists four meetings since December 2024, in all competitions, and the home side won all four: Como 2-0 and 2-1 at home, AS Roma 2-1 and 1-0 at home. The last was a 2-1 Como win at home in March 2026. The fifth meeting in the chart is from January 2003. The method does not use any of them.
AS Roma at Como, Italian Serie A, Sunday 11 October, 6:30 AM ET, Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.