Fiorentina vs Genoa Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet Genoa at +210. The bet holds down to +164.

DraftKings has Genoa at +210, the draw at +215 and Fiorentina at +125. The book’s margin is 8.4 points across the three. Taken out, the market gives Genoa 29.7%, the draw 29.3% and Fiorentina 41.0%.

Our number gives Genoa 40.0%, the draw 26.1% and Fiorentina 33.9%. That is 10.3 points above the market on Genoa. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and Genoa is the only one that clears it: the draw sits 3.2 points below the market and Fiorentina 7.1 below.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals, meaning the goals its rates point to, are the league’s average at that venue times the side’s scoring rate there times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both against the league average, and a Poisson model on the two figures gives home, draw and away.

Both sides’ rates come from last season. Genoa have played 3 home games in Serie A this season and Fiorentina 2 away, fewer than the 6 the method needs, so each side’s figure is its 2025-26 record at the venue, against the 2025-26 league averages: 1.28 goals a game for the home side and 1.15 for the away side.

Genoa at home in 2025-26 went 6-4-9 (wins, draws, losses) over 19 games, scoring 1.16 a game and conceding 1.37. Fiorentina away went 5-6-8 over 19, scoring 1.05 and conceding 1.53.

Against the averages, Genoa scored at 0.91 of the league rate at home and Fiorentina conceded at 1.20 of it away. That gives Genoa 1.38 expected goals. Fiorentina scored at 0.92 of the rate away and Genoa conceded at 1.19 of it at home, which gives Fiorentina 1.25.

The table, this season and last

Genoa are 19th of 20 after five games, with 1 point from 0-1-4, 3 goals scored and 10 conceded. Fiorentina are 17th with 4 points from 1-1-3, 6 scored and 12 conceded. Last season Genoa finished 16th with 41 points and Fiorentina 15th with 42.

The case against the call is this season. Genoa are 0-1-2 at home in 2026-27, scoring 0.67 a game and conceding 2.33. Fiorentina are 1-0-1 away, scoring 2.00 and conceding 3.00. Genoa’s rates are worse than last season’s on both counts, 0.67 against 1.16 scored and 2.33 against 1.37 conceded. Fiorentina’s are higher on both, 2.00 against 1.05 scored and 3.00 against 1.53 conceded. They come from five games, 3 at Genoa and 2 for Fiorentina on the road, too few for the method and too few to prove anything, so the number rests on the 38 games of last season.

Pick: Genoa +210

Genoa to win at +210. With the margin at 8.4 points, Genoa stays a bet down to +164. Shorter than that, our 40.0% is less than 5 points above the market’s and it is a pass.

What changes it

The price. Genoa shorter than +164 ends the bet. Fiorentina would need +221 or longer to become one, and the draw +338 or longer. Those lines assume the book’s margin stays where it is.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available for either side on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The line is 2.5 goals, over +105 and under -135. Our number puts the over at 49.1% and the under at 50.9%. The market, margin removed, has the over at 45.9%, so ours is 3.2 points higher. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since April 2024, in all competitions: two Fiorentina wins, three draws and no Genoa win. The last two were draws, 2-2 at Genoa in November 2025 and 0-0 at Fiorentina in May 2026. The method does not use them.

Fiorentina at Genoa, Italian Serie A, Saturday 10 October, 9:00 AM ET, Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:39 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.