Guide to College Football National Championship Betting

The National Championship is the pinnacle event of the college football season. With the two top teams in the country clashing for the title, the game is filled with exciting plays, lucrative bets, and endless value.

This guide provides you with everything you need to know to become successful when betting on the upcoming National Championship. We provide you with information about the types of bets you’ll find, advanced statistics you should analyze, and expert tips to consider before placing your bets.

National Title Betting Options

NCAAF Betting

Advanced Metrics

National Championship Betting Tips

College Football National Championship Odds

Why Bet on the College Football National Championship?

Betting on the college football national championship offers a unique opportunity for sports bettors due to the high level of analysis, excitement, and potential profitability associated with the event. On top of that, the national championship is the culmination of the college football season, featuring the two best teams in the country competing for the crown.

The national championship attracts a vast amount of data, media coverage, and betting interest, making it a prime event for those who enjoy analyzing matchups and placing bets strategically. The sheer volume of information available, including advanced statistics, player performance metrics, and expert opinions, allows informed bettors to make educated decisions and potentially identify value bets that less informed bettors might overlook.

The excitement and atmosphere surrounding the national championship game also adds an extra layer of enjoyment to the betting experience, making it not only a potentially lucrative endeavor but also an engaging and thrilling way to finish off the college football season.

Types of National Championship Bets

The types of bets you’ll find for the National Championship are no different from the ones you’ll find for other college football games. However, you will notice a larger selection of bets to choose from.

Keep in mind that sportsbooks are likely to offer different betting lines, meaning that you should shop around multiple sportsbooks to find bets you like that offer the most value.

To recap, here are the wagers you can expect to see:

Moneyline Bets

The moneyline bet is straightforward. Simply bet on which team will win the game. Favorites are paired with negative odds, while the underdogs have positive odds.

Point Spread Bets

The point spread bet is another straightforward bet type. This wager is on whether the underdog team will cover the spread (typically set at 1.5 points). To win the spread, the favored team must win by a minimum of 2 points, or the underdog must win the game or lose by less than 2 points.

Totals & Over/Unders

Over/under bets involve wagering on whether the final combined score of a game will be higher or lower than the total set by the sportsbook. To improve your chances, it’s smart to research both teams’ offensive strengths and the weather conditions. For example, if two low-scoring teams are playing in poor weather, it’s likely the total score will fall under the projected line.

Prop Bets

Prop bets are unique bets that often require a bit of luck to win. They let you wager on specific outcomes or occurrences during the National Championship. These are centered around individual players and teams, meaning the final outcome of the game rarely affects these bets.

Parlays

Parlays are one of the most risky types of bet, but offer lucrative payouts for successful bettors. A parlay bet rolls multiple wagers into one, giving you attractive odds for the scenario that all your bets hit.

Live Bets

Live betting, as the name suggests, is when you wager on the game while the game is still being played. This can include wagers on what the next play will be, if the next play is a pass or a run, and which player will score next. These bets require focus and quick reactions to keep up with constant shifting betting lines.

Advanced Metrics to Use for Informed National Championship Betting

Using advanced statistics can significantly enhance your betting success by providing a deeper, more nuanced understanding of team and player performance. Analyzing these stats helps you with:

Identifying true strengths and weaknesses
Improve your ability to make predictions accurately
Find and sustain long-term betting success

When it comes to the National Championship, it’s important to look at some key statistics for both the offense and defense’s efficiency.

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive efficiency stats give you a clear picture of how well an offensive unit operates. This breakdown covers both efficiency as a whole and their overall success from play to play.

Here are three key offensive advanced stats to know:

Success Rate

The success rate statistic measures the efficiency of a team’s offense by evaluating the percentage of plays that are deemed successful. A play is considered successful if it meets certain yardage thresholds based on the down and distance:

First Down: Gains at least 50% of the required yardage.
Second Down: Gains at least 70% of the required yardage.
Third/Fourth Down: Gains 100% of the required yardage.

Betting Advantage: The success rate helps you understand a team’s consistency in advancing the ball and maintaining possession. Teams with high success rates are often good at sustaining drives, which can translate to better control of the game and more scoring opportunities.

For example, a consistent offense with a high success rate is likely to convert more first downs and extend drives, increasing their chances of scoring. Success rate can be more stable and predictive than traditional stats like total yards or points scored, which can be more influenced by a few big plays or garbage time.

Explosive Play Rate

Explosive play rate measures the frequency of plays that result in significant yardage gains. Typically, an explosive play is defined as:

Gaining 10 or more yards for run plays
Gaining 20 or more yards for pass plays

Betting Advantage: Explosive play rate gives insight into a team’s ability to make big, game-changing plays. Teams that generate more explosive plays can quickly alter the momentum and score points in bunches. This stat makes it easier to predict totals and point spreads.

Expected Points Added (EPA)

The expected points added (EPA) statistic quantifies the value of each play in terms of points. It measures the expected points a team will score based on the current situation (down, distance, and field position) and compares it to the situation after the play. Positive EPA indicates a play increased the team’s expected points, while negative EPA indicates a decrease.

Betting Advantage: EPA provides a comprehensive measure of a team’s overall efficiency, considering the context of each play. This stat is valuable for:

Play Efficiency: By examining EPA, bettors can assess how well a team performs in different situations, such as third downs or red zone opportunities.
Game Flow: Teams with higher EPA per play are generally more efficient and likely to score more points, which can inform over/under bets.
Quarterback Performance: EPA is particularly useful for evaluating quarterback performance, as it accounts for situational factors and gives a clearer picture of their impact on the game.

Defensive Efficiency

Defensive efficiency stats are great for getting a better read on a team’s ability to prevent big plays, sustained drives, and scoring. In particular, there are three that are helpful for betting on the matchup in the National Championship:

Isolated Points Per Play (IsoPPP)

IsoPPP is a measure that quantifies the explosiveness of a team’s plays. It calculates the average points a team gains on successful plays, isolating the impact of big, game-changing plays.

Betting Advantage: IsoPPP helps you understand which teams are more likely to make significant, high-impact plays. This is crucial for understanding big play potential and identifying risks making point spreads and money lines easier to predict.

Havoc Rate

The havoc rate is a measurement of the disruptive plays made by a defense, including tackles for loss, forced fumbles, and passes defended (interceptions and breakups). It is calculated as the percentage of plays where the defense causes “havoc.”

Betting Advantage: Havoc rate provides you with insights into a defense’s ability to disrupt an opponent’s offense, which is valuable for:

Defensive Strength: High havoc rate indicates a defense that can create turnovers and negative plays, potentially limiting an opponent’s scoring and helping their team cover spreads.
Game Flow: Teams with high havoc rates can disrupt the rhythm of an opponent’s offense, potentially leading to lower-scoring games, which is useful for under bets.
Matchup Analysis: Comparing the havoc rate of a defense against the offensive efficiency of the opponent can reveal mismatches that may influence the outcome of the game.

Success Rate Allowed

The success rate allowed statistic measures the percentage of plays where a defense prevents the offense from achieving the yardage needed for a successful play (using the same thresholds as offensive success rate).

Betting Advantage: Success rate allowed helps bettors evaluate how well a defense can limit an opponent’s offensive efficiency, including preventing them from sustaining drives, controlling the time of possession, and more. This data combined makes it much easier to make your bets.

National Championship Betting Tips

Before you place your bets, be sure to read our expert tips below and take them into account during your analysis:

Analyze coaching performance
Consider which players are graduating
Keep up with injuries, weather reports, & suspensions
Sign up for a handicapper

Analyze Coaching Performance

The role that coaching has in the outcome of a game is sometimes underrated. Experienced coaches who thrive in high-pressure situations are more likely to be prepared for big games like the National Championship, as newer and less-experienced coaches are tougher to predict during these scenarios.

Dig into the coaching staff of the two teams competing and review their historical performance in high-pressure games. Try and find out how well they react to playing from behind, making adjustments mid-game, and making successful challenges when it matters most. This will help provide you with much-needed context when placing your bets.

Consider Which Players Are Graduating

It might sound cliché, but star players who are planning to enter the NFL draft are looking to make a big statement during their final college games. For up-and-coming rookies, there is no better stage to showcase their abilities than the National Championship.

This context is useful for betting on player performances. Do your research and see how many players in the game are graduating or planning to play in the NFL. These players should be motivated more than anyone else on the field, which can result in either a huge performance or a missed opportunity.

Keep Up with Injuries and Weather

Many external factors can greatly impact the outcome of a game. Some of the biggest include injuries and weather conditions.

It’s crucial that you stay up to date on the two teams that will be playing in the National Championship. Injuries to star players can massively affect the game script for a team, and can also result in the lowering or raising of another player’s performance.

Weather conditions also play a huge role in the National Championship. Rainy conditions may lead to less passing, while high winds may lead to more running. Either way, it’s important to factor in the upcoming weather for the game when predicting specific outcomes.

Sign Up for a Handicapper

One of the best ways to guarantee your betting success during the National Championship is to lean on the services of a professional handicapper. These services do all the hard work for you – analyzing data, matchups, injuries, and more – and provide you with expert recommendations on which bets to take.

A handicapper is great for providing you with a statistical edge over the sportsbooks. These services typically cost money, but the value more than pays for itself through the amount of bets you’ll win.

Make History With Your National Championship Betting

The National Championship is highly anticipated every year by fans and bettors. With the amount of betting action that takes place, there is a nearly endless amount of value to be found. As long as you do your homework properly, you’ll find yourself making a profit from this exciting event.

Sign up for our handicapping service today and get access to statistical breakdowns that put you in the best position possible to maximize your betting success.