I’m a huge fan of player performance props because it allows me to dig into the numbers and NFL data.
Today, we’re going to breakdown the 2020 NFL regular season rushing leader prop betting market where there’s a lot of value. Only three running backs (RBs) are priced under 10/1 odds.
Who Led the NFL in Rushing Yards in 2019?
Let’s quickly recap last season.
Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing yards in 2019 with 1540 rushing yards (16 TDs).
There were 16 players that rushed for 1000+ yards (15 RBs and 1 QB). Lamar Jackson finished #6 in the NFL in rushing yards (1206). He’s priced at 35/1 to lead the league in rushing yards in 2020.
Nick Chubb (1494 rushing yards), Christian McCaffrey (1387 rushing yards) and Ezekiel Elliott (1357 rushing yards) finished #2-#4 in regular season rushing yards in 2019.
Who is Favored to Lead the League in Rushing Yards in 2020?
Last year’s rushing leader, Henry, is a big favorite to repeat.
Henry is priced at 5/1 to lead the NFL regular season in rushing yards. The other two RBs priced under 10/1 to lead the league in rushing are Chubb (8/1) and McCaffrey (9/1).
I’m fading Henry here.
For one, the last running back to lead the NFL in rushing yards in consecutive years was LaDainian Tomlinson (2006 and 2007). Secondly, Henry only had 644 rushing yards after week 9 in 2019 before exploding for 896 rushing yards in the Titans last seven regular season games.
Defenses aren’t going to let that happen again. I expect defenses to force Ryan Tannehill to beat them by stacking the box. Barring injury, Henry is a lock for 1000+ rushing yards as the lead back in Tennessee, but he won’t repeat as the NFL’s leading rusher in 2020.
Will anthem protests return to NFL in 2020? | Pro Football Talk | NBC Sports
2020 NFL Rushing Leader Picks
Bet on Nick Chubb (+800) to Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards in 2020
It looked like Chubb was going to lead the NFL in rushing in 2019, but Henry took the lead in the final week of the regular season after rushing for 211 yards (3 TDs) against the Texans.
The Browns need to put more trust in Chubb and let him lead this offense in his third year.
Between weeks 3-12 last season, Chubb had 20+ rushing attempts in eight of nine games and he had 100+ rushing yards in five of those games. For some reason, Chubb averaged 15.1 rushing attempts in the team’s last five regular season games. This season, I expect Chubb to exceed 300+ attempts.
Chubb is a big play threat that can take any run to the house. Last season, he had the second longest rushing TD (88 yards). Kareem Hunt will steal some carries away from Chubb, especially early on in the season, but I expect Chubb to establish himself quickly as the lead RB.
Bet on Kenyan Drake (+2800) to Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards in 2020
Drake finished 2019 with 170 carries for 817 rushing yards. Miami wasn’t using him regularly. He averaged 7.8 rush attempts in six games with the Dolphins. He was then traded to Arizona where he ended up averaging 15.4 rushing attempts in eight games.
Arizona won two games with Drake in the line-up. In those two games, Drake had 137 rushing yards (22 carries) and 166 rushing yards (24 carries). With a revamped passing offense and Kyler Murray in his second season, there should be some running lanes opening up for Drake.
If Drake can play a full season as the lead back in Arizona, he could surprise a lot of people.
Bet on Devin Singletary (+3500) to Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards in 2020
My second longshot pick is Singletary in Buffalo. With Frank Gore now with the Jets, Singletary will be the lead running back for the Bills, and he won’t have a lot of competition for touches.
T.J. Yeldon may play some third downs when passing, but Singletary will be on the field for most snaps. Singletary finished the 2019 season with 775 rushing yards on just 151 carries. Singletary averaged 5.1 yards per rush, which is exactly the same as Henry.
Singletary missed four games in 2019. He was injured for weeks 3, 4 and 5. He then sat out for the last game of the regular season. If he can get a full season and come close to 300 carries, he’ll be among the rushing leaders in 2020 and we’re getting him here at 35/1 odds.
2020 NFL Rushing Leader Odds (Top 20)
Derrick Henry +500
Nick Chubb +800
Christian McCaffrey +900
Dalvin Cook +1000
Ezekiel Elliott +1000
Saquon Barkley +1000
Josh Jacobs +1600
Joe Mixon +2200
Miles Sanders +2500
Chris Carson +2800
Kenyan Drake +2800
Melvin Gordon +2800
Leonard Fournette +3300
Alvin Kamara +3300
Austin Ekeler +3300
Mark Ingram +3300
James Connor +3500
Todd Gurley +3500
Devin Singletary +3500
Lamar Jackson +3500
