If you’re not up on your cycling news, the Tour de France gets underway on June 26. Last year’s race was postponed due to the coronavirus, but it would go down as one of the greatest comebacks in Tour de France history.
Tadej Pogacar won a mountain time trial on Stage 20 to overcome what was thought to be insurmountable deficit. The cycler Pogacar beat – Primoz Roglic – is also among the favorites to win this year.
Whether you’re into cycling or not, there is value in betting the Tour de France. Here’s a look at the odds and predictions.
Two-Man Race?
After his dramatic win last year, Pogacar has been installed as the +125 favorite. Roglic, last year’s runner-up, is the only other cycler listed under +200 coming in at +175.
This would indicate that the 2021 Tour de France is pretty much a two-man race, but is it? The safe bet is on one of these two to capture this year’s title, but there may be more value elsewhere.
Three-Man Race?
What appears to be a two-man race might end up being a three-man race. In seven of the last nine Tour de France races, the winner has come from Team Ineos (formerly known as Team Sky). Egan Bernal won in 2019 and Geraint Thomas, who won in 2018, was second.
Thomas, who didn’t race in last year in France, is given +550 odds to win this year. Thomas has won the Giro and the Tour de Romandie already this year. Richie Porte (+2200) was second in Romandie and is also a Team Ineos teammate.
Richard Carapaz (+1000) just won the Tour de Suisse on June 13 giving Team Ineos its fifth World Tour stage-race victory of the season. Team Ineos is loaded and any one of Thomas, Carapaz, and Porte is entirely capable of taking this year’s Tour de France.
Sleepers
Mikel Landa of Team Bahrain Victorious has finished in the top ten at the Tour de France in each of the past four years. Landa is a longshot to win this year at +4000. It’s the same for David Gaudu, who is listed at +8000 and won the Classic Sud-Ardeche this year.
Don’t expect a longshot to just sneak up and take the premier cycling event in the world. This race will come down to Pogacar, Roglic, and Team Ineos. The safe bets are on Pogacar and Roglic. The real value is on one of the three members of Team Ineos.
Prediction
Pogacar wasn’t among the favorites last year and there is no dominant rider like a Lance Armstrong or Greg LeMond of days gone by. Pogacar and Roglic will be among the leaders, but there is just too much betting value on one of the Team Ineos riders.
Thomas didn’t race at last year’s Tour, so we’ll give the advantage to the rider that is hot. That’s Carapaz coming off the Tour de Suisse win.
Odds to Win 2021 Tour de France
Tadej Pogacar +125
Primoz Roglic +175
Geraint Thomas +550
Richard Carapaz +1000
Richie Porte +2200
Julian Alaphilippe +2500
Mikel Landa +4000
Miguel Angel Lopez +4000
Rigoberto Uran Uran +4000
Mark Padun +4000
Tao Geoghegan Hart +5000
Wilco Kelderman +5000
Jack Haig +6600
Enric Mas +6600
David Gaudu +8000
Steven Kruijswijk +8000
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