2021 Tour de France Winner Predictions and Odds

If you’re not up on your cycling news, the Tour de France gets underway on June 26. Last year’s race was postponed due to the coronavirus, but it would go down as one of the greatest comebacks in Tour de France history.

Tadej Pogacar won a mountain time trial on Stage 20 to overcome what was thought to be insurmountable deficit. The cycler Pogacar beat – Primoz Roglic – is also among the favorites to win this year.

Whether you’re into cycling or not, there is value in betting the Tour de France. Here’s a look at the odds and predictions.

Two-Man Race?

After his dramatic win last year, Pogacar has been installed as the +125 favorite. Roglic, last year’s runner-up, is the only other cycler listed under +200 coming in at +175.

This would indicate that the 2021 Tour de France is pretty much a two-man race, but is it? The safe bet is on one of these two to capture this year’s title, but there may be more value elsewhere.

Three-Man Race?

What appears to be a two-man race might end up being a three-man race. In seven of the last nine Tour de France races, the winner has come from Team Ineos (formerly known as Team Sky). Egan Bernal won in 2019 and Geraint Thomas, who won in 2018, was second.

Thomas, who didn’t race in last year in France, is given +550 odds to win this year. Thomas has won the Giro and the Tour de Romandie already this year. Richie Porte (+2200) was second in Romandie and is also a Team Ineos teammate.

Richard Carapaz (+1000) just won the Tour de Suisse on June 13 giving Team Ineos its fifth World Tour stage-race victory of the season. Team Ineos is loaded and any one of Thomas, Carapaz, and Porte is entirely capable of taking this year’s Tour de France.

Sleepers

Mikel Landa of Team Bahrain Victorious has finished in the top ten at the Tour de France in each of the past four years. Landa is a longshot to win this year at +4000. It’s the same for David Gaudu, who is listed at +8000 and won the Classic Sud-Ardeche this year.

Don’t expect a longshot to just sneak up and take the premier cycling event in the world. This race will come down to Pogacar, Roglic, and Team Ineos. The safe bets are on Pogacar and Roglic. The real value is on one of the three members of Team Ineos.

Prediction

Pogacar wasn’t among the favorites last year and there is no dominant rider like a Lance Armstrong or Greg LeMond of days gone by. Pogacar and Roglic will be among the leaders, but there is just too much betting value on one of the Team Ineos riders.

Thomas didn’t race at last year’s Tour, so we’ll give the advantage to the rider that is hot. That’s Carapaz coming off the Tour de Suisse win.

Odds to Win 2021 Tour de France

Tadej Pogacar +125

Primoz Roglic +175

Geraint Thomas +550

Richard Carapaz +1000

Richie Porte +2200

Julian Alaphilippe +2500

Mikel Landa +4000

Miguel Angel Lopez +4000

Rigoberto Uran Uran +4000

Mark Padun +4000

Tao Geoghegan Hart +5000

Wilco Kelderman +5000

Jack Haig +6600

Enric Mas +6600

David Gaudu +8000

Steven Kruijswijk +8000

Want more free predictions? Check out our NFL picks, MLB picks and NBA picks.

About the Author

A native of Western Pennsylvania, Rick, a Generation X-er, who now lives just north of the Motor City, Detroit, Michigan. A former high school, college, and professional football player, Rick now spends his time as a high school coach and as a personal quarterback trainer. An all-state high school quarterback, he went on to become an Academic All-American at Division II Indiana University of PA. He later coached at his alma mater helping lead the program to the 1990 NCAA Division II national championship game. Rick has also served as a high school head coach and as an assistant in Pennsylvania, New York, and Michigan.

His passion for sports writing started when he was the sports editor for his high school newspaper and continued when he worked as a sportswriter for the Jamestown (New York) Post-Journal in the early 1990s. A true sports fanatic, Rick enjoys all things Pittsburgh: Steelers, Pirates, and Penguins. The Immaculate Reception, the 1979 We Are Family Pirates, and the ’91-’92 Penguins are among his favorites. After working as an educator and athletic director for several years, he again took up sports writing and has contributed to several websites and publications, including Coach & Player magazine, X & O Labs, American Football Monthly, and many others.

When not consumed with coaching, watching, thinking about, or writing about football and other seasonal sports, he finds himself working out like he was still in college and reading everything from military history to Brad Thor novels. Rick has also been chasing rock god stardom as a drummer who has played with bands that have opened for the likes of Fuel, Days of the New, and Alien Ant Farm. He continues to play with his church worship group. Most importantly, Rick is married to the love of his life, Lisa, and has two beautiful daughters.