The Valspar Championship returns after being canceled last season due to COVID-19. That gave Paul Casey some extra time to think about three-peating the event after his two previous back- to-back wins in 2018 and 2019.
Casey comes into the opening round as one of the favorites at +2000 along with Corey Conners. But, Casey is not the favorite to win the Valspar outright. That honor goes to Justin Thomas who is the lone player at +800 (What Is an Outright Winners Bet?).
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Thomas remains the No. 2 ranked golfer behind Dustin Johnson (+1000) who is still ranked as the top player according to the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) list. Casey remains the 20th ranked golfer in the world.
The Valspar has plenty of talent in the field which is at full strength following last week’s team event. Here are the top-five favorites through +2000 to win the 2021 Valero Texas Open outright according to Intertops.
Justin Thomas +800
Dustin Johnson +1000
Patrick Reed +1800
Viktor Hovland +1800
Corey Conners +2000
Paul Casey +2000
2021 Valspar Championship Preview
Where: Palm Harbor, Florida
Course: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club / Copperhead Course
Format: Stroke Play
Par: 71
Length: 7,099
When: April 29 – May 2, 2021
Purse: $6.9 Million.
TV Coverage: CBS/Golf
Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club have made for some eventful finishes over the years as the Valspar Championships have been won by one stroke, or a playoff, nine of the last ten times. This list of players pushing a playoff during that time without getting the win includes Tiger Woods, Patrick Reed, Kevin Na, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, among others.
The weather could come into play with some high winds and a small chance of rain. But sunshine and windy conditions should be the norm. Look for players with longer drives trying to take some advantage off the tee.
Tee shots and second shots played well may take some of the bite out of the Copperhead Course. It has a full load of par four and five holes that demand long and low drives. to get through one of the more challenging courses on tour. Don’t be surprised if you see some high scores from the leaders this week.
2021 Valspar Championship Picks
Patrick Reed +1800
Patrick Reed came close to winning this event in both 2018 and 2015 where he lost both in three-way playoffs. A few weeks ago Reed finished T8 at Augusta and won the Farmers earlier this season. Reed has been stroking a hot putter as of late and he’s number one in birdies or better and second on the Tour in putting/strokes gained.
Corey Conners +2000
The Copperhead Course needs a tee-to-green marksman and Corey Conners fit that model. Conners has had an impressive run of top-ten finishes this season including four in his last six outings. He finished third at the Arnold Palmer and was 7th at the PLAYERS Championship followed by a T8 at the Masters (Best Bets to Win a PGA Major in 2021).
Justin Rose +3300
Justin Rose has fought a few battles this season due to a back injury but has returned with solid play the last few weeks. Following his withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer, he returned to finish 7th at the Masters and was T11 at the Zurich Classic last week.
Others I Like: Dustin Johnson has been a head-scratcher over many of the last several weeks. He’s still ranked No. 1 but has yet to win since the delayed Masters last season. Since then he’s missed one cut, this year’s Masters, and had several strange finishes. But he is the No. 1 ranked golfer according to the OWGR. Jason Kokrak (+3300) has finished this tournament inside T15 in four of the last six times he’s played.
2021 Valspar Championship Odds
Justin Thomas +800
Dustin Johnson +1000
Patrick Reed +1800
Viktor Hovland +1800
Corey Conners +2000
Paul Casey +2000
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Sungjae Im +2800
Louis Oosthuizen +2800
Abraham Ancer +2800
Scottie Scheffler +2800
Russell Henley +2800
Jason Kokrak +3300
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Justin Rose +3300
Charley Hoffman +4000
Cameron Tringale +4000
Bubba Watson +4000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Ryan Palmer +5000
Chris Kirk +5000
Kevin Na +5000
Kevin Streelman +6600
Max Homa +6600
Keegan Bradley +6600
Lucas Glover +6600
Gary Woodland +6600
Talor Gooch +6600
Sam Burns +6600
Kevin Kisner +6600
Charles Howell III +8000
Adam Hadwin +8000
Lanto Griffin +8000
Denny McCarthy +8000
Cameron Davis +8000
Branden Grace +8000
Ian Poulter +8000
Mackenzie Hughes +10000
Doug Ghim +10000
Sam Horsfield +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Erik Van Rooyen +10000
Charl Schwartzel +10000
Cameron Champ +10000
Peter Uihlein +10000
Brandt Snedeker +10000
Danny Willett +10000
Patton Kizzire +12500
John Huh +12500
Matthew Nesmith +12500
Rory Sabbatini +12500
Ryan Moore +12500
Phil Mickelson +12500
Zach Johnson +12500
Keith Mitchell +12500
Henrik Stenson +12500
Tom Hoge +12500
JT Poston +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Russell Knox +12500
Jhonattan Vegas +12500
Sepp Straka +15000
Tom Lewis +15000
Luke List +15000
Rasmus Hojgaard +15000
Richy Werenski +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
James Hahn +15000
Doc Redman +15000
Sam Ryder +15000
Rafael Cabrera Bello +15000
Graeme McDowell +15000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +20000
Adam Schenk +20000
Andrew Putnam +20000
Chase Seiffert +20000
Roger Sloan +20000
Adam Long +20000
Pat Perez +20000
Nick Taylor +20000
Kyle Stanley +20000
Camilo Villegas +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Byeong-Hun An +20000
Scott Piercy +20000
Chez Reavie +20000
Kevin Chappell +20000
Jamie Lovemark +20000
Kristoffer Ventura +20000
Brandon Hagy +20000
Joseph Bramlett +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Jason Dufner +25000
Brian Stuard +25000
Chesson Hadley +25000
Henrik Norlander +25000
Patrick Rodgers +25000
Cameron Percy +25000
J.B. Holmes +25000
Wesley Bryan +25000
Rafael Campos +25000
Troy Merritt +25000
Ryan Armour +25000
Vincent Whaley +25000
Mark Hubbard +25000
Aaron Baddeley +25000
Danny Lee +25000
Sung Kang +30000
Will Gordon +30000
Bo Hoag +30000
Andrew Landry +30000
Peter Malnati +30000
Bronson Burgoon +30000
Hudson Swafford +30000
Scott Harrington +30000
Grayson Murray +30000
Austin Cook +35000
David Hearn +40000
Sean O'Hair +40000
Vaughn Taylor +40000
Satoshi Kodaira +40000
Scott Brown +40000
Rob Oppenheim +40000
Beau Hossler +40000
Michael Gligic +40000
Robby Shelton +40000
Brian Gay +40000
Kramer Hickok +40000
Ryan Brehm +40000
Hank Lebioda +40000
D J Trahan +50000
Kevin Tway +50000
Jimmy Walker +50000
K J Choi +50000
Jim Herman +50000
Luke Donald +50000
Ted Potter +50000
Chase Koepka +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
William McGirt +50000
Michael Kim +50000
Nick Watney +50000
Jonas Blixt +50000
John Augenstein +50000
Xinjun Zhang +75000
Hunter Mahan +75000
Bo Van Pelt +100000
Kevin Stadler +100000
Martin Trainer +100000
D.A. Points +100000
Rod Perry +100000
