2022 Ally 400 Odds and Predictions

2022 Ally 400 Odds and Predictions

Can Larson win in Music City again? Yes! The NASCAR Cup Series took a much-needed week off following the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Now we move from a road course to a high-banked oval at Nashville Superspeedway for the Ally 400. This is only the 2nd race for the Cup Series at the facility as the Cup schedule dropped Nashville Fairgrounds Speedway in the late 80s.

The best way to get started when analyzing this race is to look at last year's race. If you do, then you’ll know why Kyle Larson comes in as the lone favorite to win outright at +500. Larson dominated by being out front for 264 of 300 laps. Of course, it seems like when you mention Kyle Larson and odds you have to include Kyle Busch – at least during much of this season.

Busch comes in at +750 this week. During last season’s Ally 400 he led ten laps but finished 11 th when the checkered flag waved. He did have to drive through the field a few times. At one point in the race, he was 27th. His average running position for the 2021 Ally 400 was 9th.

Before last season’s Nashville race, it had been almost four decades since the highest level of NASCAR raced in the Music City. Back then the Cup Series raced at the smaller Fairgrounds track. Nashville Superspeedway came online for NASCAR in 2001 and hosted ARCA, Xfinity Series, and Camping World Truck Series up until 2011.

The lack of track time on the concrete surface at Nashville is a problem when making picks this week. That’s why the odds list is a mix of how drivers have performed this season as well as how the Ally 400 panned out last season. Only four drivers come in under +1000. Here are the favorite drivers through +800 to win the 2022 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway outright.

Kyle Larson +500

Kyle Busch +750

Ross Chastain +800

Chase Elliott +800

Before you stress out due to a lack of stats for Nashville… there is something to pull from. The venue has only hosted one Cup Series event but it did host Xfinity (then Nationwide), the Trucks, and the ARCA Series. Past Nashville winners of those series include Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Austin Dillon.

2022 Ally 400 Preview

Date: Sunday, June 26, 2022, 5:00 pm EST

Track: Nashville Superspeedway

Type: Tri-Oval, asphalt, 1.33 miles, 4 turns.

Race Distance: 400 miles, 300 laps

Defending Track Winner: Kyle Larson

TV/Radio: NBCS / MRN

2022 Ally 400 Picks

Kyle Larson +500

The obvious favorite is Kyle Larson due to his run at Nashville Superspeedway last season. He was the leader for essentially the entire race. Larson has not racked up as many wins at this point of the season as he had last year but he does have a checkered in 2022. He’s also finished 5th or better six times and 10th or better eight times so far this year. The downside this season for Larson is that he has had four DNFs in 2022.

Chase Elliott +800

Chase Elliott has a chip on his shoulder to remove when it comes to Nashville Superspeedway. Last season he was the driver behind Larson when it comes to laps led. Granted, it was only 13 laps as the leader. But he was towards the front for much of the run. The problem for Elliott is that he was disqualified following the race due to loose lug nuts that were found during post-race inspection. That won’t be an issue with the new single lug nut on the new cars.

William Byron +1100

William Byron has two wins on the season so far and he seems to drive well on medium and large tracks. His win this season came at the newly reconfigured Altlanta Motor Speedway and then at Martinsville. He also led laps at Talladega, Darlington, and Kansas. Two weeks ago Byron finished 9th on the road course at Sonoma.

Others to Consider: I would love to see Kevin Harvick (+2200) return to victory lane to end his nearly two-season long winning drought. He finished 4th at this race last season. Daniel Suarez (+2800) won his first Cup Series race two weeks ago showing that he’s finally matched up with an organization with good equipment. He finished 7th here last season.

2022 Ally 400 Betting Lines

Kyle Larson +500

Kyle Busch +750

Ross Chastain +800

Chase Elliott +800

Denny Hamlin +1000

Ryan Blaney +1000

William Byron +1100

Martin Truex Jr +1200

Joey Logano +1200

Tyler Reddick +1400

Alex Bowman +1600

Christopher Bell +1800

Kevin Harvick +2200

Chase Briscoe +2200

Kurt Busch +2500

Daniel Suarez +2800

Aric Almirola +4000

Austin Cindric +5000

Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5500

Austin Dillon +6600

Erik Jones +8000

Brad Keselowski +8000

Darrell Wallace Jr. +10000

Chris Buescher +10000

AJ Allmendinger +12500

Justin Haley +15000

Cole Custer +20000

Michael McDowell +30000

Todd Gilliland +50000

Ty Dillon +50000

Harrison Burton +50000

Josh Bilicki +100000

Corey Lajoie +100000

Cody Ware +100000

J.J. Yeley +100000

BJ McLeod +100000