Can Larson win in Music City again? Yes! The NASCAR Cup Series took a much-needed week off following the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Now we move from a road course to a high-banked oval at Nashville Superspeedway for the Ally 400. This is only the 2nd race for the Cup Series at the facility as the Cup schedule dropped Nashville Fairgrounds Speedway in the late 80s.
The best way to get started when analyzing this race is to look at last year’s race. If you do, then you’ll know why Kyle Larson comes in as the lone favorite to win outright at +500. Larson dominated by being out front for 264 of 300 laps. Of course, it seems like when you mention Kyle Larson and odds you have to include Kyle Busch – at least during much of this season.
Busch comes in at +750 this week. During last season’s Ally 400 he led ten laps but finished 11 th when the checkered flag waved. He did have to drive through the field a few times. At one point in the race, he was 27th. His average running position for the 2021 Ally 400 was 9th.
Before last season’s Nashville race, it had been almost four decades since the highest level of NASCAR raced in the Music City. Back then the Cup Series raced at the smaller Fairgrounds track. Nashville Superspeedway came online for NASCAR in 2001 and hosted ARCA, Xfinity Series, and Camping World Truck Series up until 2011.
The lack of track time on the concrete surface at Nashville is a problem when making picks this week. That’s why the odds list is a mix of how drivers have performed this season as well as how the Ally 400 panned out last season. Only four drivers come in under +1000. Here are the favorite drivers through +800 to win the 2022 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway outright.
Kyle Larson +500
Kyle Busch +750
Ross Chastain +800
Chase Elliott +800
Before you stress out due to a lack of stats for Nashville… there is something to pull from. The venue has only hosted one Cup Series event but it did host Xfinity (then Nationwide), the Trucks, and the ARCA Series. Past Nashville winners of those series include Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Austin Dillon.
2022 Ally 400 Preview
Date: Sunday, June 26, 2022, 5:00 pm EST
Track: Nashville Superspeedway
Type: Tri-Oval, asphalt, 1.33 miles, 4 turns.
Race Distance: 400 miles, 300 laps
Defending Track Winner: Kyle Larson
TV/Radio: NBCS / MRN
2022 Ally 400 Picks
Kyle Larson +500
The obvious favorite is Kyle Larson due to his run at Nashville Superspeedway last season. He was the leader for essentially the entire race. Larson has not racked up as many wins at this point of the season as he had last year but he does have a checkered in 2022. He’s also finished 5th or better six times and 10th or better eight times so far this year. The downside this season for Larson is that he has had four DNFs in 2022.
Chase Elliott +800
Chase Elliott has a chip on his shoulder to remove when it comes to Nashville Superspeedway. Last season he was the driver behind Larson when it comes to laps led. Granted, it was only 13 laps as the leader. But he was towards the front for much of the run. The problem for Elliott is that he was disqualified following the race due to loose lug nuts that were found during post-race inspection. That won’t be an issue with the new single lug nut on the new cars.
William Byron +1100
William Byron has two wins on the season so far and he seems to drive well on medium and large tracks. His win this season came at the newly reconfigured Altlanta Motor Speedway and then at Martinsville. He also led laps at Talladega, Darlington, and Kansas. Two weeks ago Byron finished 9th on the road course at Sonoma.
Others to Consider: I would love to see Kevin Harvick (+2200) return to victory lane to end his nearly two-season long winning drought. He finished 4th at this race last season. Daniel Suarez (+2800) won his first Cup Series race two weeks ago showing that he’s finally matched up with an organization with good equipment. He finished 7th here last season.
2022 Ally 400 Betting Lines
Kyle Larson +500
Kyle Busch +750
Ross Chastain +800
Chase Elliott +800
Denny Hamlin +1000
Ryan Blaney +1000
William Byron +1100
Martin Truex Jr +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Tyler Reddick +1400
Alex Bowman +1600
Christopher Bell +1800
Kevin Harvick +2200
Chase Briscoe +2200
Kurt Busch +2500
Daniel Suarez +2800
Aric Almirola +4000
Austin Cindric +5000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5500
Austin Dillon +6600
Erik Jones +8000
Brad Keselowski +8000
Darrell Wallace Jr. +10000
Chris Buescher +10000
AJ Allmendinger +12500
Justin Haley +15000
Cole Custer +20000
Michael McDowell +30000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Harrison Burton +50000
Josh Bilicki +100000
Corey Lajoie +100000
Cody Ware +100000
J.J. Yeley +100000
BJ McLeod +100000
