This week the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400. After last season we now know that Atlanta is now a completely different track than it was a few years ago. Last season the Cup Cars hit the reconfigured track which now raced like a superspeedway and the racing was completely different.
We went from long green flag runs and worn-out tires to high-speed draft racing complete with bump and side drafting. Two drivers took advantage of the change and one of them is among the favorites to win the Ambetter Health 400 outright. That’s William Byron who comes in at +1000 and who won this race last season. Then it was Chase Elliott who won the fall race at Atlanta but Byron is the only “new Atlanta” Cup Series winner in the field. Elliott is still out due to his leg injury.
With Elliott out of the mix, the next driver to top the favorites list is Kyle Larson who comes in with Byron at +1000 as a co-favorite. But there’s a bunch of drivers that oddsmakers see as a threat to top them as an additional five drivers are hitting the race weekend at +1200. That’s almost a seven-driver dead heat.
Here are the favorites to win the Ambetter Health 400 outright:
William Byron +1000
Kyle Larson +1000
Ryan Blaney +1200
Ross Chastain +1200
Kyle Busch +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Denny Hamlin +1200
The good news for drivers and teams this season is that we now have two races on the new surface and reconfigured layout of Atlanta Motor Speedway. That means there may not be as many surprises as there were heading into this race weekend last season. But oddsmakers are still leaning toward Ford and Chevrolet drivers to win this race.
Chevrolet drivers have won the last three races at Atlanta with Ford drivers winning the five contests prior. Toyota has not done very well in Atlanta in the Cup Series as their last win came in 2013. That winner was Kyle Busch with Denny Hamlin winning in the fall of 2012. Both drivers are listed as favorites above but Busch has since moved to a Chevrolet. Hamlin is the only Toyota among the favorites. Also, this race has been shortened from a 500-mile event to a 400-mile race.
2023 Ambetter Health 400 Preview
Time: Sunday, March 19 – 3:00 PM Eastern
Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway / Hampton, Georgia
Type: 1.54-mile banked Quad-Oval
Race Distance: 260 laps / 400 miles
Defending race winner: William Byron – Spring race
Defending track winner: Chase Elliott – Fall Race
TV/Radio: Fox / SiriusXM / MRN local affiliates
2023 Ambetter Health 400 Predictions
William Byron +1000
William Byron is at the top of the favorites list for a reason. He’s the defending race winner and he’s won the last two Cup Series races this season. He’s the only driver in this field that has had a Cup Series win on this track since the revamp. Byron took over the No. 24 Chevy ride from Chase Elliott several seasons ago when Elliott took the wheel of the No. 9 car which is the number his father is best known for. Byron is now sitting at the top of the Cup Series point standings.
Kyle Busch +1200
Kyle Busch has won at this track in the past but it was before the overhaul. However, he’s shown improvement over last season since moving to a Chevrolet and Chevy drivers have won the last three races at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Busch has already logged a win this season when he took the checkered flag at Auto Club Speedway. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet is sitting second in points and finished 8th last week at Phoenix.
Kevin Harvick +2500
This may be a sentimental pick which I know I should not do. But it seems that Kevin Harvick is due a win and Atlanta has been kind to him over the years. He finished 12th here last fall and had a great run last week at Phoenix where it looked like he would grab the checkered before a late restart. That shuffled him and relegated the driver in his final season to a 5th-place finish. The week prior he finished 9th in Las Vegas. He’s had three top-ten finishes in the four races so far this season.
Others to Consider: I’m iffy on Kyle Larson (+1000) as he’s great at tracks that are 1-2 miles long. However, he’s not been at his strongest at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Bubba Wallace (+2200) always seems to be in the mix when it comes to Superspeedways and now that Atlanta has some of that vibe he may be able to add to his winning record. However, Wallace has looked great at times over the last two seasons but can’t seem to get over the hump at the end.
2023 Ambetter Health 400 Betting Lines
William Byron +1000
Kyle Larson +1000
Ryan Blaney +1200
Ross Chastain +1200
Kyle Busch +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Denny Hamlin +1200
Christopher Bell +1400
Tyler Reddick +1800
Brad Keselowski +2000
Alex Bowman +2000
Martin Truex Jr +2200
Bubba Wallace +2200
Kevin Harvick +2500
Daniel Suarez +2500
Chris Buescher +2500
Aric Almirola +2800
Austin Cindric +2800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +3300
Erik Jones +3300
Chase Briscoe +3300
Austin Dillon +4000
Ryan Preece +5000
Michael McDowell +5000
Justin Haley +5000
Josh Berry +5000
Corey Lajoie +5000
AJ Allmendinger +5000
Todd Gilliland +6600
Noah Gragson +6600
Ty Gibbs +6600
Harrison Burton +10000
Ty Dillon +25000
J.J. Yeley +50000
Cody Ware +50000
BJ McLeod +50000
