UC Irvine enters the Big West conference game as the favorite on the road, but when you dig a little deeper into Fullerton, they are talented. On the perimeter, Fullerton is led by the Maddox’s, which actually aren’t related. Tray (15.2 ppg) and Dante Maddox (11.3 ppg) lead this Titans team in both points per game as well as shooting. They shoot almost identical percentages from deep at 44.7% and 44.6%, respectfully.
The younger Maddox (Dante) has stepped up his game over the last four contests, averaging over 16.5 points per game while maintaining high levels of efficiency in regards to his shooting. Not to be outdone, Tray has upped his production to 17.8 points per game while shooting 60% from behind the arc in his last four games.
Fullerton may be seeing increased returns from its two-star players, but the Titans are just 4-3 straight up in their last seven games. The rub is that Fullerton is good against the number at home at 3-2 and has pulled a couple of victories as the dog at 2-4 straight up. On the road, Irvine is just 3-5 against the spread and has lost three of 10 games straight up as the favorite.
This feels strangely easy, which means a true sharp would probably fade it, but you have to ride the trend. The total has gone over in each of North Dakota’s last nine games, while Omaha has exceeded the total in eight of their last 10 contests.
Neither of these teams ranks within the top 270 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and while both teams are bad on offense, they are still division one basketball players. It is safe to assume that the offense will win out when the defense is so porous.
There isn’t a whole lot to unpack here other than two terrible teams playing each other, and both allow opposing teams to score north of 76 points per game on defense. To dive a little bit deeper, North Dakota has gone over in nearly 60% of their games over the last two seasons, while Nebraska-Omaha has gone over the total in 56% of their games since the start of the 2019-20 season.
The Northern Kentucky Norse have not played an opponent within the Kenpom top 100 since December 13th and have still dropped three games straight up at home. In their 10 home games on the season, they are also just 4-6 against the spread.
On the flip side of that coin, Wright State is an incredible 8-1 against the spread in true road games this season while also being 16-3 straight up as the favorite. The Raiders are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against NKU and are currently riding a nine-game winning streak.
It’s a big number to back in regards to a road team, but you have to ride the hot hand. When it comes to Wright State, coach Nagy has two hot hands in Loudon Love and Tanner Holden. In their last eleven games, Love and Holden have combined to average 33.8 points, 17.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. Both players are shooting over 50% from the floor while leading the Raiders to an impressive 10-1 record over that stretch.
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