Wagering on college basketball is more than just evaluating each game's trends; it's comparing matchups that populate the day's slate and identifying which game has more value than the others. Here are some value sports picks you should take a look at for Sunday's slate of games.
This game was a fairly easy one to identify. Virginia Tech is one of the surprise teams in the nation and has shown a propensity to score more than what we were expecting after watching the Hokies stumble after last season's midpoint.
Despite Notre Dame's struggles in closing out games, the Irish are one of the more efficient offensive teams in the nation, according to Kenpom. In fact, both of these teams rank within the top 30 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Virginia Tech ranks outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Notre Dame ranks 186th.
So far on the season, these two teams have combined to score 145 points per game and combined to surrender 135 points per game. The total has gone over in four of the seven games the Hokies have hosted this season. Take the over.
Minnesota is just 1-13 in true road games against ranked opponents over the last few seasons. However, Richard Pitino's crew did just defeat Iowa in overtime a couple of weeks ago on Christmas Day.
Despite Luka Garza logging 32 points in the game, the Golden Gophers were able to manage 1.32 points per possession and land their best win of the season. At +425, the Gophers represent the most talented team on the board with long odds that actually has an opportunity to land you some serious cash.
However, given Minnesota's ridiculous struggles on the road in recent seasons, it would be nonsensical for someone to recommend you lay down a full unit on the Golden Gophers straight up. That said, they've already beaten the Hawkeyes once, so who's to say they can replicate the magic?
Given the heavy slate on Saturday, there are few choices on Sunday to maximize profit. However, the Providence side of this game is juiced more heavily than the Xavier side, and its doubtful that the Friars can hang with Travis Steele's club on the road.
In a perfect world, you're looking for a home dog to cover or even win straight up, but that simply isn't available on Sunday's slate. Instead, take a home team that is favored and juiced less than the road dog with a spread that is manageable.
Simply put, Xavier is a top 20 team in effective field goal percentage defense, while the Friars already rank 186th in effective field goal percentage. Don't overthink it; easy money is sometimes better than long money.
Xavier is 7-1 straight up as the favorite this season, and, going back to the 2017-18 season, the Musketeers are 33-11 straight up as the home team with an average margin of victory of +7.4 points per game. Meanwhile, Providence is just 12-13 straight up in true road games.
Take Xavier to cover the 3.5-point spread at (-105)
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