If you like to bet on MLB games, you typically might bet on the moneyline or the run line. If you are looking for more action and some fun wagers, you should consider betting MLB first inning props.
A common first inning prop bet is simply if a run will be scored by either team. A simple example might look like this:
LAD/LAA Run in 1st Inning – Yes (+120) No (-150)
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In the example, you would have to bet $100 to win $120 if the bet paid out on a run being scored in the first inning. Betting on the “No” would require the bettor to wager $150 to win $100.
Typically, bettors wager on “No” more than “Yes” in this prop bet. As a result, online sportsbooks tend to juice the “No.” This might provide bettors some opportunity to bet the “Yes.”
Tips for Betting MLB 1st Inning Props
Betting 1st inning props can be profitable if you are willing to take the time to do some research. Before searching for value bets in this category, you need to do some statistical analysis to help you handicap these bets.
One of the first things to look at is the projected starting pitchers. What you are not looking for is name recognition. Just because Gerrit Cole or Clayton Kershaw is on the mound is not your concern. What you are more interested in is first inning performance.
For example, Cole had a 2.50 ERA in 2019, but his first inning ERA was a much higher 3.55. The public will see Cole as the starter and tend to favor betting NO. Here is where you may find some value in betting YES since sportsbooks like to juice up the NO.
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Other MLB Statistics to Consider
Another obvious statistic to take into consideration is how often a team scores or allows a run in the first inning. In 2019, bettors may be surprised to know that the Cincinnati Reds were the MLB team that scored most often in the first inning. The Reds scored in the first inning in 40.74 percent of their games last year.
Next, you should examine the top of each team’s batting order. How well do these hitters perform in the first inning? In addition, you will want to look at how well each hitter does against the opposing pitcher.
Mike Trout hits at the top of the Angels order. Prior to this season, he had faced both Yu Darvish and Justin Verlander in roughly 40 at-bats. Trout has 13 hits, including four home runs, against Darvish for a .317 batting average. Trout hits just .125 against Verlander. This is also important to research when you want to bet on MLB home run props (single game).
Check the Baseball Over/Under
There happens to be a strong correlation between the Over/Under and whether or not a run will be scored in the first inning. In games where the Total is set at six runs or fewer, it is less likely that a run will be scored in the first inning.
In a game with the Total set at 10 runs, it is much more likely a run will be scored in the opening inning. Once you have checked your other stats, take a quick look at the totals.
Betting first inning props can be fun and profitable. Keep in mind that bookmakers are spending as much time determining first inning prop lines giving these bets even more value for the prepared handicapper.
