Kurt Busch shook things up a bit last week with his hometown win at Las Vegas. He jumped into the top transfer spot in the Cup Series Playoffs and is locked into the next round. It was a great win – but oddsmakers don’t see that carrying over to this week’s favorites at Talladega Super Speedway.
Denny Hamlin is the lone favorite under +1000 this weekend coming in at +900. Behind him are four drivers locked up at +1000. Kurt Busch comes in at +2000 which is well behind the favorites – which could make him a perfect payoff pick!
Of course, Talladega is a track where anything can happen including the so-called “Big One” wreck which always seems to eliminate half the field. However, there are always a few drivers that seem to run strong there every time they visit the track.
That’s list is essentially the five drivers listed below. Here’s how the favorites to win the NASCAR Cup Series Yellawood 500 at Talladega this weekend.
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Denny Hamlin +900
Joey Logano +1000
Ryan Blaney +1000
Chase Elliott +1000
Brad Keselowski +1000
Championship Playoff Drivers:
Kurt Busch made the jump from last on the playoff list to first after winning last weekend at Las Vegas. The other major change was Austin Dillon dropping below the cut line to the last spot. Twelve drivers remain in the Playoffs. The cutline is eight after the next two races – Talladega and Charlotte.
1. Kurt Busch – Win
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Martin Truex Jr
6. Joey Logano
7. Chase Elliott
8. Alex Bowman
Round of 12 Cutoff Line:
9. Kyle Busch
10. Clint Bowyer
11. Aric Almirola
12. Austin Dillon
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2020 Yellawood 500 at Talladega Preview
Track: Talladega Superspeedway, Lincoln, Alabama
Type: 2.66 miles, tri-oval, asphalt
Turns: 4
Banking: Turns 1/ 2 – 33°, 3 – 32.4°, 4 – 32.5°, Back 3°, Front 16.5°
Race Distance: 500.8 miles, 188 laps
Defending Track Winner: Ryan Blaney
TV/Radio: NBC / MRN
Start Time: Sunday, October 4, at 2:00 PM Eastern
Wins by Manufacturer: Chevrolet 41, Ford 30, Toyota 3, (Mercury 7, Buick 6, Oldsmobile 6, Dodge 4, Plymouth 3, Pontiac 2)
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Ryan Blaney +1000
Ryan Blaney has won the last two races at Talladega and has four top-ten runs and three in the top-five. He seems to do well in Alabama – especially since moving to Penski. He has not had the best success during the playoffs but hid did finish 7th last week in Vegas. That’s a stat worth digging into. He’s run great on the big tracks this season. Daytona 2nd, Charlotte 3rd & 3rd, Talladega 1st.
Chase Elliott +1000
Chase Elliott won at Talladega last year and continues to run strong this season. He’s the best Chevrolet driver this season with three top-ten runs in the last five races. He crashed out earlier this season at Talladega but finished 2nd a few weeks ago at Daytona.
Aric Almirola +1600
The numbers are bunched up a bit this week – so saying Aric Almirola at +1600 is a value pick may be a stretch. But I do think he may be slightly overlooked this weekend. He’s won at Talledega and he’s finished top-ten or better fifteen times. Since 2016 – he’s finished 3rd, 4th, 9th, 1st, 7th, 5th, 4th, and 8th respectively.
Others I like
Kevin Harvick and Ricky Stenhouse Jr: I’m fading Kevin Harvick (+1200) a bit this week as he’s not run his best at Talladega – his last win there came in 2010. But, he’s been dominant all year so you have to take a look. Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+1800) has great numbers at Talladega. In fourteen starts at the track – he has one win and nine top-ten runs, He’s finished fifth or better in three of the last six trips to the track.
One Fantasy Driver
My must-have fantasy driver this weekend is Aric Almirola. Take a look at the finishes he has had at Talladega the last several seasons and you’ll know why.
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Yellawood 500 at Talladega Odds
Denny Hamlin +900
Joey Logano +1000
Ryan Blaney +1000
Chase Elliott +1000
Brad Keselowski +1000
Kevin Harvick +1200
Kyle Busch +1200
Alex Bowman +1400
William Byron +1400
Aric Almirola +1600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1800
Kurt Busch +2000
Martin Truex Jr +2200
Jimmie Johnson +2500
Chris Buescher +2800
Christopher Bell +2800
Matt Dibenedetto +2800
Austin Dillon +2800
Cole Custer +2800
Clint Bowyer +2800
Darrell “Bubba” Wallace Jr. +3300
Tyler Reddick +4000
Erik Jones +4000
Matt Kenseth +4000
Ryan Newman +5000
Michael McDowell +5000
John Hunter Nemechek +5000
Corey Lajoie +10000
Ty Dillon +10000
Ryan Preece +10000
Brendan Gaughan +10000
Brennan Poole +20000
Daniel Suarez +20000
Quinn Houff +25000
Timmy Hill +30000
Joey Gase +30000
J.J. Yeley +30000
Reed Sorenson +30000
James Davison +30000
