Week 1 of the college football season is finally here, and that means that we have some bets to make. There are plenty of games on Thursday to get some action down, but we want to make sure that we get it in good on the books.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ohio State vs. Minnesota Predictions
ATS Pick: Ohio State -14 (-110)
The Buckeyes kick off their march back to the national title game with a big conference game on the road against a veteran-laden team in Minnesota. This should be a tough test for Ohio State, but this line really makes no sense to me.
Ohio State has some question marks on the roster, but these question marks are going to be met with 50 elite recruits competing to fill them. Oftentimes, what Vegas doesn’t account for is that vulnerable spots on an elite team one year are likely to be filled quickly by young talent because they have a great recruiting pitch to the best players in the country. I think Ohio State is better than they were last season at every unit outside of QB, and CJ Stroud is a former top 50 recruit and top 3 QB in the country.
If Ohio State is truly a top 5 team, which their coach, team talent, and program history suggests that they will be, a 14 point line would suggest that Minnesota is a top 10-15 team. We see these top programs dismantle good teams all the time, and keeping a game even close is a huge feat.
Minnesota isn’t a top 15 team. They allowed 6.3 yards per carry last year. They rely on an elite run game against a team that allowed less than 4 YPC to Travis Etienne and Najee Harris to end last season. The Golden Gophers need an outlier performance to keep this game close, just like any other team in the Big Ten not named Penn State does. Give me the Buckeyes.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech Predictions
Over/Under Pick: Under 64 Points (-110)
This is a really interesting game in week one because we have North Carolina walking into an incredibly tough environment after losing a lot of offensive talent to the NFL last season. Can Sam Howell throw the team on his back, or does he regress without elite talent around him? I’ll lean towards the second one here, along with an intense conference matchup where I expect both defenses to be improved, particularly North Carolina.
North Carolina had a great QB prospect and a veteran coach taking over the program, and they just so happened to be talented enough to make a splash before most expected. Now, we are starting to see the fruits of their labor in recruiting, and I expect North Carolina to have some young dudes on the defensive side of the football that flash on Thursday night. This is key for the under, and I think I’ll ride UNC unders for a while after being all over the overs in UNC games the past 2 seasons.
Boise State Broncos vs. UCF Knights
Boise State vs. UCF Predictions
Moneyline Pick: Boise State (+170)
This is really just a bet on the Boise State program’s consistency relative to the coaching changes that have gone on at UCF. Both teams will be showing off their new hires, but I have more confidence in what Boise State will do as a program, and I really like their returning production on both sides of the ball.
Both teams have an elite G5 QB, and we should see plenty of points on the board if they stick true to their recent identities. Give me the Broncos and the points in a game that feels like it is a toss-up besides the home-field advantage.
