It is championship weekend and that means we have one more opportunity to lock in the perfect teaser bet. And, when Coach Rick says opportunity; he means opportunity.
In the last 26 conference championship games, 18 of them finished inside of six points of the closing spread. That means that both sides were winners on teaser bets.
Best NFL Bookies for Teaser Bets
Even so, stick to your teaser basics for this week’s NFL conference championship two-game teaser bet. To get this final teaser right, we have to remember our teaser rules. Never tease across zero. Playoff games cannot end in a tie meaning you are crossing over numbers – -0.5, 0, and 0.5 – that are not possible final score margins.
It makes more sense to cross at least two key numbers. Most NFL games end with a scoring margin of 3 or 7. Other key margins are 4 and 6. If you can cross at least two of these, you’ve got yourself a worthy teaser.
Live NFL Conference Championship Odds
2021 NFC Championship Game Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Picks
Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 / Tease: Buccaneers +9.5
The Packers are 3.5-point home favorites against Tom Brady and Tampa Bay, who upset New Orleans last week to advance. The Bucs have won seven straight road games and have done so by an average of 16 points.
Recall Week 5 of this year when the Packers and Bucs met in Tampa. Green Bay built a 10-0 first quarter lead. Then, the wheels fell off the bus. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw a pick-six and Brady tossed two touchdowns as the Bucs rolled up 28 points in the second quarter.
It was Rodgers worst game of the season and Green Bay lost 38-10. That game was in Tampa. Sunday’s game is at Lambeau Field in Green Bay where Tampa Bay is 1-15 in its last 16 trips. None of those 16 trips to Lambeau had Tom Brady playing quarterback.
Brady has 31 playoff wins and plenty of experience in conference title games. He’s won nine of them. Teasing this spread to +9.5 crosses all the key numbers – 3, 4, 6, and 7. Remember, the Bucs defense harassed Rodgers all game long in the first meeting this season. There’s no reason why Tampa Bay cannot keep this game close.
Free NFL Conference Championship Picks
2021 AFC Championship Game Preview
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks
Spread: Bills +2.5 / Tease: Bills +8.5
Buffalo hasn’t been to a conference championship since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly was the quarterback. Now, the Bills have a potential MVP quarterback in Josh Allen who has led Buffalo to its best season in years.
Last week, it was all Allen as the Bills ran for just 32 yards in a 17-3 win over Baltimore. Allen went 23-of- 37 for 206 yards and a touchdown and the defense got a 101-yard pick-six from Taron Johnson.
This week, the big question is whether or not Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will play. Mahomes was knocked out in the third quarter of last week’s win over Cleveland. He entered concussion protocol and it has not yet been determined whether he’ll play or not.
Even with Mahomes, the Chiefs have not blown out any opponents for some time. In fact, Kansas City hasn’t covered a spread in nine games. In their last eight wins, the Chiefs largest margin of victory was six points.
Like the NFC title game, teasing this spread to +8.5 covers all the key numbers. Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bills average cover margin in those games is +12.6 points.
Make sure you check out Dave’s best bets for the NFL Conference Championships.
