In an interesting twist, both NFL conference championship games feature rematches of games played earlier this season. The Rams and 49ers, of course, are in the NFC West Division and play each other twice each year.
The Rams and 49ers played in the regular season finale in Week 18. The Chiefs and Bengals met in Week 17 in a game played in Cincinnati. How will this week’s game turn out and who will play for a Super Bowl title?
Here are the NFL conference championship moneyline picks.
2022 AFC Conference Championship Money Line
When these two teams met in Week 17, it was a tale of two halves. Kansas City and QB Patrick Mahomes jumped out to a 28-14 halftime lead over the Bengals. Chiefs RB Darrel Williams had two touchdown runs and Mahomes had two touchdown passes to give Kansas City that lead.
In the second half, Cincy QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase took over and rallied the Bengals. The Cincinnati defense also limited the Chiefs to just three points in the half. Chase would end up with 11 catches, 266 yards, and three touchdowns and Burrow would lead Cincy on a game-winning six-minute drive capped by an Evan McPherson field goal. Cincy won 34-31.
The Bengals did have some issues in that game though. Burrow was sacked four times. He had some issues last week in another last-second win over the AFC’s No. 1 seed Tennessee. Burrow went down nine times, but still managed to eke out a victory.
The Chiefs had some difficulty in slowing down Buffalo’s passing game last week. The Bills and QB Josh Allen scored two touchdowns in the game’s final two minutes of regulation. Both scores were touchdown passes. Still, the Chiefs and their high-octane offense won.
With all the offense on the field, don’t forget that the Under is 9-3 in the last 12 Cincy-KC games and 6-1 in the last seven at Arrowhead Stadium. In conference championship games with a favorite of more than a field goal (KC is -7), the favorite is 15-8 ATS. In this same situation but where the opponents played each other previously that season, the favorite is 6-2 ATS.
Bottom line is that big favorites tend to win big in conference championship games. Back the Chiefs.
Best Moneyline Pick: CHIEFS -320
2022 NFC Conference Championship Money Line
When the Rams and 49ers played in Week 18, the Niners needed overtime to win and qualify for the playoffs. The game shouldn’t have been that close. San Francisco outgained the Rams 449 to 265, but LA was able to convert 7-of-10 third downs and 3-of-4 red zone trips.
The Niners sacked Rams QB Matthew Stafford five times and didn’t allow LA to run the football in a 27- 24 win. In the first game of the season between the two teams, the 49ers picked off Stafford on the Rams first two possessions, ran the ball for 156 yards, and won easily 31-10.
San Francisco has beaten LA in the last six straight meetings and head coach Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 against Rams head coach Sean McVay.
The thing that stands out in this matchup is that it is being played by division rivals. In playoff games between division opponents since 2003, the visiting team is 15-8-1 ATS. The team with the lower winning percentage is 14-6-1 ATS. Plus, the 49ers under Shanahan do well in the underdog role. In their last 19 games as the dog, San Francisco has won outright 12 times. They will again on Sunday.
Best Moneyline Pick: 49ERS +160
