Well, coming off a Monday night effort in which we went “over” on Mac Jones’ passing yards (pretty tough to do that on just three attempts), we ask ourselves some questions.
If there is an offense that is really challenged for a way to score, should that point us in the direction of the opponent, even if they are a big road favorite, or the total? We’ve chosen the latter.
In fact – and not that this is this week’s theme – we are all over the “unders” this week.
Raiders at Chiefs Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 1 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 48.5 Points (-110) / Under 48.5 Points (-110)
The Play: UNDER 48.5 POINTS (-110)
This is a rematch of a previous 41-14 KC win, where, from my perspective anyway, a stupid personal foul penalty on Maxx Crosby opened up the floodgates for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes had over 400 yards in that one, but that really sticks out like a sore thumb, because after the first two games of the season, he’s only topped 300 twice. And look at some of these Kansas City points totals right before and right after that first Raider game.
Las Vegas plays a Cover 3, which is going to do its level best to guard against explosive plays, and that has become a broken record for defenses as they try to slow down what Mahomes does. Judging from the numbers, they haven’t done all that bad a job. The Chiefs are 22nd in explosive pass rate, and that has been disappointing.
We’re still not sure about the total health picture for the Raiders because we don’t know whether Darren Waller is going to suit up. But we can tell you that Washington did a great job of quieting the Las Vegas deep threats last week (DeSean Jackson and Zay Jones a combined four catches for 35 yards), and when that happens, Derek Carr is a different quarterback.
Falcons at Panthers Parlay Betting
Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 1 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 42.5 Points (-110) / Under 42.5 Points (-110)
The Play: UNDER 42.5 POINTS (-110)
We still don’t have a full handle on the circumstances surrounding Joe Brady’s ouster as offensive coordinator, but we do know that Carolina head coach Matt Rhule would like to run the ball a lot more. Perhaps he’s looking at what’s been happening with Philadelphia and New England and figures, why not?
Well, “why not” is that he won’t have Christian McCaffrey for the rest of the season. Why not is that Chuba Hubbard is not a guy you build an NFL ground game around. Why not is that Cam Newton can’t pound the rock like he used to, in case that’s what Rhule and his new coordinator (Jeff Nixon) have in mind.
But Carolina still has some defense. They are still #1 in the NFL in yards per drive allowed. And that is significant in this game with an Atlanta team that got a big performance out of Russell Gage last week, and may be able to make enough plays to win, but certainly doesn’t have the equipment to run wild.
Seahawks at Texans Parlay Betting
Seahawks vs. Texans Prediction
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 1 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 41.5 Points (-110) / Under 41.5 Points (-110)
The Play: UNDER 41.5 POINTS (-110)
Here’s what we were talking about at the top. Houston is last in most offensive categories – scoring, yards per game and per drive, and points per drive. They have scored less than ten points in half their games, for heaven’s sake. And they will likely be starting Davis Mills at quarterback, as Tyrod Taylor nurses a wrist injury. Management may figure it’s just as well, to see if Mills has a future with them.
Seattle has an interesting defensive dynamic, in that they are dead last in yards allowed on a per-drive basis, but ninth BEST in points allowed per drive. That’s because they are the NFL’s second best (behind New England) in the defensive category of yards per point. And that makes it an especially difficult proposition for a struggling offense like the Texans have.
So we could lay a relatively sizable number with the Seahawks, who are coming off a win. But we’re looking closer at the total. No one should be under the impression that Russell Wilson has suddenly revived himself. He threw two TD passes, but he averaged only 6.2 yards an attempt. We don’t want to lose sight of the fact that he was at 9.6 before he went down with his finger injury. Travis Homer had 80 rushing yards for Seattle last week. Let’s see him do that again. Adrian Peterson isn’t going to give it to them – he had a TD but just 16 yards on eleven carries last weekend, and the last time we mentioned him here, he was cut about ten minutes later by Tennessee.
Lions at Broncos Parlay Betting
Time: Sunday, December 12 – 4:05 PM ET
Totals Odds: Over 42 Points (-110) / Under 42 Points (-110)
The Play: UNDER 42 POINTS (-110)
Can Detroit get over the shock of actually winning last Sunday? We’ll see. They have been a tough team most weeks, and by the way have played eight of their last ten under the total.
One thing you know about both of these coaches is that they want to emphasize running the ball. And they also play a somewhat low-variance passing game, Jared Goff especially so (6.3 air yards per target – 35th in the league).
Denver may be in better shape to grind it out because they have a tackle-breaking machine in rookie Javonte Williams (670 yards,4.8 per carry), while D’Andre Swift (shoulder injury) is not likely to see action for the Lions. But Detroit coach Dan Campbell is calling the plays now, and he likes it “old school,” so he’s probably going to give a lot of action to his own Williams – Jamaal, the former Packer, who had 71 yards vs. Minnesota.
My wild guess is that Denver coach Vic Fangio, the renowned defensive guru, is going to have an easier time confounding Goff than the other way round. The Broncos have played ten of 12 under the total, so we’ve got both teams trending that way in 2021.
