Our first bet is nothing more than a bet against two poor defenses. Detroit is at least middling, though struggling of late.
Washington has a bottom five defensive unit in the NBA. Couple that mark with their high pace of play, and Wizards games are good targets for overs this season.
These teams played last week and did not reach this mark, so what has changed? Star guard Bradley Beal left early in that contest due to injury, disrupting the flow of the game. The disruption led to the Wizards scoring an abysmal 11 points in the third quarter.
Without Beal on Tuesday, the Wizards showed they have the chops to hit an over without their leader. Russell Westbrook led Washington to a 132-124 win against an Indiana team with a similar defense to Detroit.
With or without Beal, Washington should have opportunities to score against Detroit.
The Pistons offense isn't a world-beater by any means, but with so little resistance, I'd expect points from Detroit. Jerami Grant has had his strongest season of a pro, averaging 22.4 points per game. Expect a big game from the forward.
The Wizards are 24-22 against overs this year, while Detroit is 23-24.
The trend continues, as we have a game with not one but two bottom 10 defenses. It helps that Brooklyn sports the top scoring offense in the entire NBA, while Charlotte is league-average on offense.
This is our favorite bet of the night - a very reasonable over/under for a Nets team with the strongest offense in the league.
Keep in mind that James Harden sat out the fourth quarter of the Nets' most recent game with hamstring tightness. He is day-to-day and questionable to play. Even without his presence, Kyrie Irving has shown himself as capable of leading this team to high-scoring outputs.
Joe Harris has played a strong supporting role this season, shooting nearly 50% from three.
Helping our case for the over is the Hornets' poor three-point defense, currently the third-most generous in the league.
For Charlotte, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier have picked up the scoring slack with rookie LaMelo Ball out due to injury. Of the Hornets' last four games, two were against defenses similar to Brooklyn.
The Hornets scored 114 and 122 in those two games, and one can expect an encore performance on Thursday. Brooklyn is 29-19 against overs this season, while Charlotte is 22-23-1.
We'll change up the strategy for our final pick of the night between Denver and Los Angeles. This over/under line is extremely reasonable for a game consisting of two of the best offenses in the NBA.
When slicing by points per game, effective field goal percentage and efficiency, the Clippers are the second-best offense. Denver isn't far behind at fifth-strongest.
This is a star-laden game, with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic for the Nuggets and Kawhi Leonard and Paul George for the Clippers.
The Clippers have a strong defense, but Denver does not. These are two of the best teams this season at hitting their overs. Both Denver and Los Angeles have gone over their projected total 59% of the time.
At just 221 points, this line feels slightly mispriced. It's a great over to hammer as we enjoy our Thursday NBA betting action.
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