The first bet of the night is an over pick. The logic is simply based on defensive abilities. Key defensive metrics such as points allowed, field goal percentage and efficiency show two teams in the bottom 10 of the league.
Neither the Mavericks nor the Wizards offer a threatening defense, which alone suggests a high-scoring game may be coming. The Dallas offense is above average, led by Luka Doncic, so the Mavericks are well-positioned to score points in bunches.
The Wizards offense plays fast, ranking fourth in the NBA in field goals attempted per game. More shots and opportunity should equal more points.
On the season, Washington is 24-23 against overs, while Dallas is 20-27.
Similar logic can be applied to this Magic-Jazz game. Orlando's offense is second-worst in the league and will be matched up against Utah's third-ranked defense. It's an egregious difference and one worth targeting.
Orlando has been playing well of late, but fresh off a massive trade deadline dump, this team isn't built for sustained success.
Meanwhile, the 37-11 Jazz are one of the NBA's best teams on both ends of the floor. Their defense, led by Rudy Gobert's 2.9 blocks per game, won't let the Magic get going.
On the season, Orlando is averaging just 104.5 points per game.
Keep an eye on the Bucks' lineup before placing this bet. Milwaukee is playing the second game of a back-to-back and may rest some starters. In a similar scenario a week ago, the Bucks rested Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
If they both play, this spread is a no-brainer bet. The Bucks offense is one of the best in the NBA. Antetokounmpo is coming off a massive 47-point outing against the Blazers' 29th-ranked defense.
Now, Milwaukee gets the Kings' 30th-ranked defense. Sacramento is the most generous defense this season and should have no chance against the Bucks.
Consider loading up on a couple of player props as well. This is as stark of an advantage for an offense as you'll find. Antetokounmpo and Middleton should both be able to hit their overs, assuming they play.
On the season, Milwaukee is 22-26 against the spread. The Kings are 22-27 ATS.
Get on the RIGHT side of the game with Kyle Parker.
Kyle has put the hammer down for more than 25-years as a bookie, line mover, oddsmaker, and gambler. He knows trends, and has proven it time and again with win, after win.
Kyle Parker hit the gambling scene some 25-years ago and he hasn’t missed a beat. Bettors trust insiders and inside information is exactly what Parker brings to the table. As a retired bookmaker, and manager of more than a handful of offshore gambling sites, Parker has a bead on how lines work, how to spot weak lines, and most of all, the undervalued teams in any given matchup.
A consistent winner - you can find Kyle's picks on GameAdvisers.