The first pick of the night is a juicy one, with one of the highest overs of the NBA season. The high projected total is for good reason.
For starters, these are two of the best teams hitting their overs this season. The Pelicans have hit their over 67% of the time, while the Nets have covered the points in 59% of their games.
These teams are covering their overs at such a frequent clip because they both have strong offenses and weak defenses. It may go without saying, but that is a perfect combination for points.
Brooklyn owns the NBA's top-ranked offense, while the Pelicans also find themselves ranked inside the top 10. Inversely, New Orleans' defense is the second worst in the league, and Brooklyn has a bottom 10 unit.
The disparity between Brooklyn's offense (one) and New Orleans' defense (29) is enough reason to target an over on its own.
Luckily, we get mismatches on both ends, and thus this game is our favorite pick of the night.
Beyond the high-level stats, this is an example of offensive preferences aligning with defensive weaknesses. The Nets rank fifth in the NBA in threes made per game.
The Pelicans are the third-most generous team to threes. Kyrie Irving and Co. should find success from deep.
Meanwhile, New Orleans and Zion Williamson prefer to do their scoring in the paint, ranking third in the NBA in the category. The Nets are a bottom 10 defense at stopping points in the paint. Expect a big game from Williamson, if he returns, and the Pelicans offense.
Our second NBA total to consider is just one team; in this case, the Houston Rockets. We're taking their projected point under as a team against this Dallas defense for a few reasons.
When it comes to scoring and shooting effectively, Houston is one of the league's worst, currently 27th in the NBA. Dallas' defense has skyrocketed up the ranks, as is now a top 10 defense.
The Mavericks are on quite a tear of late, winning five straight games. Teams are averaging just 98 points against Dallas during this stretch. The most encouraging defensive performance was likely Monday night, holding the Utah Jazz to just 103 points.
Utah has one of the league's best offenses. If the Jazz can barely crack 100 points, it's hard to imagine Houston's lackluster offense fares any better.
The Mavericks also play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. If they can dictate the tempo for the entire game, this bet should hit comfortably.
Any game that includes Minnesota is worthy of consideration for an over. The Timberwolves' defense is abysmal, ranking 27th in the NBA.
They are equally inept at stopping points in the paint (28th) and stopping the three (29th). Points are aplenty in Timberwolves games, aided by their offense playing the second-fastest pace in the league.
This bet becomes a favorite because of Indiana's growing offensive success. In particular, the Pacers have thrived scoring points in the paint, a clear advantage against this porous Timberwolves defense.
Slashing guards like Caris LeVert should have big games for the Pacers. If All-Star Domantas Sabonis returns to the lineup Wednesday, expect even more points. Sabonis lives near the paint and should be poised for a big outing.
Indiana is the third-best team in the NBA against overs this season, at 29-18-1. The Timberwolves are 25-26 against overs.
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