With about one month in the books of the baseball season, we start to make adjustments going forward and the game sets into a daily routine. Every team has been home and away a few times and the schedule starts to change, not playing as many division opponents like the first month of the season, with greater diversity going forward.
Here is a look at various aspects to include in your handicapping efforts to win consistently when betting baseball.
Pitching Numbers To Be Aware Of
By now every starting pitcher has multiple starts under his belt and with fewer days off, all teams will start using all five starting pitchers or using them every 5th day with the “Opener” in vogue recently with clubs lacking quality starters and having deeper bullpens.
With the ability to look into useful statistics we can start using numbers to enhance our chances against the sportsbooks. Among the aspects to start utilizing are strikeout-to-walk ratios. This is a great indicator about a pitcher who has the ability to throw strikes and limit the trouble he can get into when allowing multiple hits in an inning, which is inevitable. Here we are looking for at least a 2 to 1 ratio favoring punch-outs.
Check out How to Bet Parlays
With the analytics people running the game of baseball, not manager’s, the only way a starting pitcher reaches the seventh or eighth inning anymore is if they have a low pitch count or their team is way ahead and he’s thrown with relative ease. That makes the importance of a Quality Starts (six innings and permits no more than three earned runs) more important to baseball bettors. Besides the obvious effect on an individual game, quality starts help set up bullpens for the late innings if a team has a lead and relievers can be comfortable in specific roles. Plus, quality starts matter if you bet 1st five innings, which can provide you an edge.
When surveying starting pitchers, especially those that are middle to back of the rotation hurlers, watch for this trait. If a pitcher has produced three strong or weak starts in a row, they typically will reverse course the next time out. Their focus typically weakens or improves based on previous results and when combined with other every day handicapping methods, these can generate good underdog winners fairly consistently.
In today’s modern game, bullpens are immensely important. By May, managers hope to have their bullpens more settled and roles defined. Granted, those can change as the season evolves, but we now have enough data to. In games where the money line is -120 or less on the favorite and starting pitching matchup is very close, the bullpens will often decide the outcome. If you have a large disparity in ERA’s, blown saves or home runs allowed, betting on the right pen could make you a late game-winner.
Betting Into Streaks and Matchups
Baseball by its very nature of playing 162 games lends itself to streaks. All teams have streaks where they well or poorly and it is recommended not to bet against them. It is always best ride them unless there is an extreme situation in which it almost certainly will end.
A common complaint or question is when should you, as a bettor hop on streak, as often too many come to the party too late and are tagged with a loss when finally jumping on the bandwagon. Though not 100 percent, here are traits to follow, particularly on offense.
Take a Look at How Straight Bets Work
If a team wins or loses three in a row, to even be under consideration, this has to cover two different series. Any club can have a hot or cold series, but if it continues with a change of venue, you might be on to something. In finding a hot streak on offense, the team should be scoring at least 5 or more runs a game and averaging at least nine hits a contest. Those are telltale signs of swinging the bats well. Conversely, slumping clubs have scored eight or fewer runs in three games and totaled 18 or fewer hits.
Otherwise, betting baseball is about understanding matchups. Figuring out why and how bad teams lose, with the same for good squads. If starting pitchers always pitch well or poorly against certain teams or possibly teams play better or worse in certain parks.
For anyone that has ever bet baseball for a length of time, it is an intoxicating daily ritual and the best way to win is finding the rhythm of the game, be it by a style or by teams and stick with methods that incorporate what we just spelled out for you.
