Today, our predictions center around MLB strikeouts props, and as our subjects we have the favorite to win a Cy Young this season, a former Cy Young winner on the road back, and someone who should, without question, challenge for a Cy Young in the future.
And remember that you can bet plenty of baseball player props everyday, such as whether a hitter will hit a home run or not.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Props Betting
Yankees vs. Red Sox Predictions
Best Bet: Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120)
If you remember, Cole came out like a house afire at the outset of the season; over his first 52-2/3 innings he had 78 strikeouts while giving up just three walks. Well, he cooled down since then (as almost anybody would), although still not enough to keep him from being the favorite for the Cy Young award. There was a period of time, in the wake of "Sticky-gate" when he was getting hit a little harder than usual, but apparently he has gotten a better "grip" on things and has been throwing heat.
In his last two starts he has fanned 23 batters in 15 innings, and that includes a three-hit shutout against Houston in which he threw 129 pitches. And in these last two he has faced extremely capable offensive teams (Astros and Red Sox). What is especially encouraging about the last outing, which featured eleven K's, is that it was done with Gary Sanchez behind the plate. If you follow the Yankees you know that Cole more or less has a personal catcher, Kyle Higashioka, but he is currently sidelined in the COVID protocol. So at least Cole has built a little confidence with Sanchez, a power hitter but a less capable receiver.
Remember that with Cole, you've got someone who can and willgo innings. He's not just another guy Aaron Boone will take out after five or six, so he could really build numbers.
At -120, we're all in on the OVER.
Best Bet Eduardo Rodriguez Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)
This Venezuelan product, who was sixth in the Cy Young voting two seasons ago, has fanned 23 batters in 17 innings against the Yankees this season. He's averaged 1.18 K's per inning, but even at that rate it wouldn't point us toward the "under."
Factor in what has happened with him at Fenway Park, where sometimes you have to pitch differently (particularly as a lefty), and where he's struck out 30% of the batters he has faced. Based on an expected 25.6 batters faced, we've got him at 7.7 K's, so we will take the price to go over the top.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Props Betting
Rockies vs. Dodgers Predictions
Best Bet: David Price Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Price, the former Cy Young winner, sat out the 2020 season with COVID concerns, has been mostly a relief pitcher at Chavez Ravine, and now he is being brought along to assume a spot in the Dodger rotation. They need it, as they are currently without Clayton Kershaw, Trevor May and Trevor Bauer.
In his last outing he went four innings against these same Rockies at Coors Field. He struck out four batters and allowed two hits. That was his longest outing of the season, and he threw 66 pitches, and the plan is to increase the pitch count a little more. We could reasonably expect him to throw about 80 pitches, which could bring him an extra strikeout or two.
After all, handicappers should take into account that he has averaged about a strikeout per inning this season. In facing 32 Colorado batters, he has struck out ten of them. That's over the course of 7-2/3 innings. And he seems to have shown some particular mastery over Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, who has fanned six times in seven career at bats against him.
All in all, we feel like we're in pretty good shape with the OVER in this one.
White Sox vs. Brewers Props Betting
White Sox vs. Brewers Predictions
Best Bet: Freddy Peralta Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Peralta is part of that formidable starting staff in Milwaukee that will make the Brewers a legitimate NL pennant contender. This is his first start against the White Sox, which could be an advantage. We've got him striking out 1.38 batters per inning, coming out to about 35% of the hitters he's encountered, although that is trending downward over his last seven starts. Even at the higher estimate, however, he doesn't quite reach the number we're looking for, so there is more value on the UNDER side of things.
Angels vs. Twins Props Betting
Angels vs. Twins Predictions
Best Bet: J.A. Happ Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Happ, a former All-Star who has been around the block once or twice,is not having a good season, with an ERA of 6.15 and a WHIP of 1.500, and his strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since 2009. So let's accept the proposition that he is not going to be mowing down hitters.
But interestingly, he's gone seven innings in each of his last two starts (though in one of them he was hit hard by Detroit). And in his last 33 innings on the mound - a period of six starts - he punched out 32 hitters.
If he can get five innings here (and the Angels haven't seen him since 2019), we can get there too.