If you have been following any of this, you know that we like to follow individual players and how they do against individual pitchers. Sometimes a hitter has a rough time of it against one specific hurler, and mentally, they just can't get over it.
Over the course of time, this provides a pattern. That, among other factors, goes into the way we look at these props, and we think we have some for you today when it comes to base hits. It's a tricky one- will a player get a base hit or won't he?
We don't mean to imply that it's rocket science, but it's more complicated than just looking at a batting average.
MLB Hits Player Props Five Pack for Saturday
Blue Jays vs. Mets Betting Preview
Best Bet: Michael Conforto Under 0.5 Hits (+125)
You don't have to look too hard to notice that Michael Conforto, who's having a tough enough year as it is (.203, 53 K's, 39 hits) has been baffled by Ryu. He has come to the plate 12 times against the Korean,a former ERA champ who once toiled for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and has very little to show for it - two singles and six strikeouts. Ryu, it should be pointed out, has a 0.53 ERA and has given up just one walk in his last five starts vs. the Mets, with a 0.772 WHIP ratio.
Cardinals vs. Reds Betting Preview
Best Bet: Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 Hits (+165)
I don't know how to put this gently, but if you were in the middle of a potential big inning against Luis Castillo, and you needed one guy to keep it going, that guy would not be Tyler O'Neill.
Success against Castillo has been hard for him to attain, as although he's hit a couple of homers against him, this prop is not about that. The fact is, those homers are the only hits he has against Castillo in 21 plate appearances, and he's been struck out five times. So while he has a slugging average of .444, the batting average is only .111.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Betting Preview
A.J. Pollack Under 0.5 Hits (+180)
Pollack has actually done very well against Freeland over the course of his career, going 9-for-25 with a pair of home runs. But when we do these props we have to consider the price, because everything is relative. And we'd much rather be on this side of the proposition than in laying -250 on him to get a base hit.
White Sox vs. Brewers Betting Preview
Best Bet: Jose Abreu Under 0.5 Hits (+140)
Corbin Burnes has given up just 18 hits over his last 27-1/3 innings. So maybe he's going to be hard for anyone to hit right now. He's faced Jose Abreu twice, and in one of those trips Abreu hit a two-run homer. So does the reigning MVP have his number? Not sure about that. Let's expect Burnes, who if you recall, started out the season as if he was not going to give anyone a free pass to first base, to pitch a little different to Abreu, who has not quite averaged one hit per game. This "under" price isn't bad for a guy who is pretty much "feast or famine," with 92 K's in 337 official at bats.
Nationals vs. Orioles Betting Preview
Best Bet: Trey Mancini Under 0.5 Hits (+145)
Max Scherzer has not been effective in his first starts before and after he made his start in the Al-Star Game. In fact,he's given up 11 earned runs in 10-2/3 innings. But he has owned Maikel Franco, who is just 4-of-27 lifetime against him,. although Franco does have a homer to show for his efforts. As for tonight's purposes, Home Run Derby runner-up Trey Mancini has one hit and three strikeouts in seven career plate appearances against Scherzer, and we can get better odds on him.
Read our MLB home run props betting guide and MLB total bases props betting guide.